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Global Economic Effects of the Asian Currency Devaluations

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Author Info

  • Marcus Noland

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Li-Gang Liu

    (Institute for International Economics)

  • Sherman Robinson

    (International Food Policy Research Institute Author -Name: Zhi Wang
    US International Trade Commission)

Abstract

The Asian financial crisis has precipitated significant changes in real exchange rates in the region that will substantially alter the volume and pattern of international trade. The crisis countries will increase their exports and, especially, reduce their imports. Japan, China, and the other non-crisis countries will experience more complex changes. The trade balances of the United States and Western Europe will deteriorate by about $40-50 billion as a result of the currency movements in Asia. * This study, newly updated in August 1999, quantifies the impact of the currency changes on the individual countries in Asia, on the United States, on Europe and on other regions on a sector-by-sector basis. It analyzes the additional impact that might occur if China, thus far a relative bystander in the crisis, were to devalue its currency as well. It then examines potential trade policy responses to these developments including the risk of an upsurge in protectionist pressure in the United States.

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Bibliographic Info

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This book is provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics with number pa56 and published in 1998.

ISBN: 978-0-88132-260-6
Handle: RePEc:iie:piiepa:pa56

Note: Policy Analyses in International Economics 56
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Cited by:
  1. Patricia S. Pollard & Cletus C. Coughlin, 1999. "Going down: the Asian crisis and U.S. exports," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 33-46.
  2. Yin-wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2005. "The Chinese Economies in Global Context: The Integration Process and Its Determinants," Working Papers 072005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2003. "China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A Quantitative Assessment of Real and Financial Integration," CESifo Working Paper Series 851, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Rod Tyers & Yongzheng Yang, 2004. "The Asian Recession and Northern Labour Markets," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(248), pages 58-75, 03.
  5. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 2000. "State exports and the Asian crisis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 3-14.
  6. M. Serrano & Marián Boguñá & Alessandro Vespignani, 2007. "Patterns of dominant flows in the world trade web," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 111-124, December.
  7. Sherman Robinson & Zhi Wang & Will Martin, 2002. "Capturing the Implications of Services Trade Liberalization," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 3-33.
  8. S.M. Shafaeddin, 2004. "Who Is The Master? Who Is The Servant? Market Or Government? An Alternative Approach: Towards A Coordination System," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 175, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  9. Willenbockel, Dirk & Robinson, Sherman, 2009. "The global financial crisis, LDC exports and welfare: analysis with a world trade model," MPRA Paper 15376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Fernald, John & Edison, Hali & Loungani, Prakash, 1999. "Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 515-535, August.
  11. Qiao, Hong, 2007. "Exchange rates and trade balances under the dollar standard," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 765-782.
  12. Kalpana Kochhar & Prakash Loungani & Mark R. Stone, 1998. "The East Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 98/128, International Monetary Fund.

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