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Recovery Scenarios for Ireland

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Author Info
Bergin, Adele
Conefrey, Thomas
Fitz Gerald, John
Kearney, Ide

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Abstract

This paper examines recovery scenarios for the Irish economy. It estimates that the growth rate in potential output is 3% a year. This takes account of a permanent loss of output of 10% of GDP as a result of the recession. On this basis, and taking account of government fiscal action this year and in 2010, the government"s structural deficit is estimated to fall to between 3 and 4% of GDP by the end of 2010. The analysis suggests that when the world economy recovers the Irish economy will follow suit recovering some lost ground. Should the world recovery be delayed until 2012 this would inflict some further damage but the Irish economy would still see quite rapid growth in the postponed recovery phase.

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This book is provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Research Series with number RS007 and published in 2009.

ISBN: 9780707002811
Handle: RePEc:esr:resser:rs007

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Traistaru-Siedschlag, Iulia, 2007. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in Ireland under the EMU," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(1-Spring), pages 78-92. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bergin, Adele & Kearney, Ide, 2007. "Human capital accumulation in an open labour market: Ireland in the 1990s," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 839-858, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip J., 2008. "Benchmarking, Social Partnership and Higher Remuneration: Wage Settling Institutions and the Public-Private Sector Wage Gap in Ireland," Papers WP270, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Barrett, Alan & FitzGerald, John & Nolan, Brian, 2002. "Earnings inequality, returns to education and immigration into Ireland," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 665-680, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Fitz Gerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "The Behaviour of the Irish Economy: Insights from the HERMES Macro-Economic Model," Papers WP287, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.


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