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Recovery Scenarios for Ireland

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Author Info

  • Bergin, Adele
  • Conefrey, Thomas
  • FitzGerald, John
  • Kearney, Ide

Abstract

This paper examines recovery scenarios for the Irish economy. It estimates that the growth rate in potential output is 3% a year. This takes account of a permanent loss of output of 10% of GDP as a result of the recession. On this basis, and taking account of government fiscal action this year and in 2010, the government"s structural deficit is estimated to fall to between 3 and 4% of GDP by the end of 2010. The analysis suggests that when the world economy recovers the Irish economy will follow suit recovering some lost ground. Should the world recovery be delayed until 2012 this would inflict some further damage but the Irish economy would still see quite rapid growth in the postponed recovery phase.

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Bibliographic Info

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This book is provided by Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its series Research Series with number RS007 and published in 2009.

ISBN: 9780707002811
Handle: RePEc:esr:resser:rs007

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References

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  1. Barrett, Alan & FitzGerald, John & Nolan, Brian, 2000. "Earnings Inequality, Returns to Education and Immigration into Ireland," IZA Discussion Papers 167, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Iulia Siedschlag, 2008. "Macroeconomic Differentials and Adjustment in the Euro Area," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2008/3 edited by Morten Balling.
  3. Lars Jonung & Jaakko Kiander & Pentti Vartia, 2008. "The great financial crisis in Finland and Sweden - The dynamics of boom, bust and recovery, 1985-2000," European Economy - Economic Papers 350, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  4. Edgar Morgenroth, 2009. "Irish Public Capital Spending in a Recession," Papers WP298, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  5. John FitzGerald, 1998. "Wage Formation and the Labour Market," Papers WP095, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  6. Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip J., 2008. "Benchmarking, Social Partnership and Higher Remuneration: Wage Settling Institutions and the Public-Private Sector Wage Gap in Ireland," Papers WP270, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  7. FitzGerald, John & Bergin, Adele & Kearney, Ide & Barrett, Alan & Duffy, David & Garrett, Shane & McCarthy, Yvonne, 2005. "Medium-Term Review 2005-2012, No. 10," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR10, March.
  8. FitzGerald, John & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Diffney, Sean & Duffy, David & Kearney, Ide & Lyons, Sean & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Mayor, Karen & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Medium-Term Review 2008-2015, No. 11," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR11, March.
  9. FitzGerald, John, 2001. "Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: The Case of Ireland," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2001(1-March), pages 1-17.
  10. Bergin, Adele & Cullen, Joe & Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & McCoy, Daniel, 2003. "Medium-Term Review 2003-2010, No. 9," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR09, March.
  11. Goggin, Jean & Siedschlag, Iulia, 2009. "International Transmission of Business Cycles Between Ireland and its Trading Partners," Papers WP279, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  12. Hartog,Joop & Maassen van den Brink,Henriëtte (ed.), 2007. "Human Capital," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521873161, October.
  13. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "The Behaviour of the Irish Economy: Insights from the HERMES Macro-Economic Model," Papers WP287, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  14. Bergin, Adele & Kearney, Ide, 2007. "Human capital accumulation in an open labour market: Ireland in the 1990s," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 839-858, November.
  15. Traistaru-Siedschlag, Iulia, 2007. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in Ireland under the EMU," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(1-Spring), pages 78-92.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Curtis, John, 2012. "The Environment Review 2012," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS26.
  2. McGuinness, Seamus & Bergin, Adele & Kelly, Elish & McCoy, Selina & Smyth, Emer & Timoney, Kevin, 2012. "A Study of Future Demand for Higher Education in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS30.
  3. Hennessy, Hugh & Tol, Richard S. J., 2010. "The Impact of Climate Policy on Private Car Ownership in Ireland," Papers WP342, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  4. FitzGerald, John, 2011. "The Irish Economy Today: Albatross or Phoenix?," Papers WP384, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  5. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2010. "Recovery Scenarios for Ireland: An Update," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number jacb201051, March.
  6. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "The HERMES-13 macroeconomic model of the Irish economy," Papers WP460, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  7. Anghel, Brindusa & Cabrales, Antonio & Carro, Jesus, 2012. "Evaluating a bilingual education program in Spain: the impact beyond foreign language learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 8995, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. repec:esr:chaptr:jacb200962 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Hugh Hennessy & Richard S. J. Tol, 2011. "The Impact of Government Policy on Private Car Ownership in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(2), pages 135–157.
  10. Kelly, Robert & McQuinn, Kieran, 2013. "On the hook for impaired bank lending: Do sovereign-bank inter-linkages affect the fiscal multiplier?," Research Technical Papers 01/RT/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
  11. Deane, Paul & FitzGerald, John & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Tuohy, Aidan & Walsh, Darragh, 2013. "Irish and British Historical Electricity Prices and Implications for the Future," Papers WP452, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  12. Gorecki, Paul K., 2009. "The Recession, Budgets, Competition, and Regulation: Should the State Supply Bespoke Protection?," Papers BP2010/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  13. FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Duffy, David & Timoney, Kevin & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "Medium-Term Review: 2013-2020, No. 12," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR12, March.
  14. Sebastian Dellepiane & Niamh Hardiman, 2011. "Governing the Irish Economy: A Triple Crisis," Working Papers 201103, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  15. O' Mahony, Tadhg & Zhou, P. & Sweeney, John, 2013. "Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 385-397.

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