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Muss die Bevölkerung in Deutschland schrumpfen?


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  • Babel, Bernhard
  • Bomsdorf, Eckart
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    In den Diskussionen um die demographische Entwicklung in Deutschland bleibt häufig unberücksichtigt, dass die Bevölkerungsvorausberechnungen nur modellhaften Charakter haben können, da sie annahmenabhängig sind. Welche Auswirkungen auf den Bevölkerungsumfang ergeben sich in Deutschland bis 2050, wenn die Annahmen an die Realität angepasst werden? Welche Konsequenzen sind für den Alten- und den Jungenquotienten zu erwarten? Welche Werte müssen die Bevölkerungskomponenten Fertilität, Migration und Mortalität annehmen, damit ein gegebener Bevölkerungsumfang erhalten bleibt? --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by ZBW – German National Library of Economics / Leibniz Information Centre for Economics in its journal Wirtschaftsdienst.

    Volume (Year): 87 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 6 ()
    Pages: 391-396

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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:wirtdi:42755

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    Cited by:
    1. Eckart Bomsdorf, 2010. "Rückgang der Bevölkerung – Zunahme der Pflegefälle Divergierende Entwicklungen in Deutschland bis 2050," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 3-18, June.
    2. Eckart Bomsdorf, 2008. "Höhere Erwerbsbeteiligung der Frauen und Rente mit 67 können Arbeitskräfteangebot stabilisieren – Modellrechnungen für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland bis 2050," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(13), pages 11-21, 07.


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