IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/ifweej/20159.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sovereign credit ratings and the transnationalization of finance: Evidence from a gravity model of portfolio investment

Author

Listed:
  • Körner, Finn Marten
  • Trautwein, Hans-Michael

Abstract

It is a matter of debate in how far credit ratings contribute to allocative efficiency or to excessive volatility of asset prices and cross-border capital flows. Yet it is generally taken for granted that ratings play a significant role in the transnationalization of financial relations. This paper tests that hypothesis with data on sovereign credit ratings and foreign portfolio investment. A rating-related gravity model of finance is derived from the choice-theoretical framework of Okawa and van Wincoop (Gravity in International Finance, 2012) and estimated in three stages. At the first stage, the authors find that the introduction and evolution of sovereign ratings since the 1970s has affected inward portfolio investment in host countries. At the second stage, they examine to which extent sovereign ratings help to predict the degree of investors' home bias, and whether they can account for the divergent dynamics before and after the global financial crisis. At the third stage, the authors look at the explanatory content of ratings for the determination of the size of bilateral portfolio investment. Evidence for a significant role of sovereign ratings is found at all three stages.

Suggested Citation

  • Körner, Finn Marten & Trautwein, Hans-Michael, 2015. "Sovereign credit ratings and the transnationalization of finance: Evidence from a gravity model of portfolio investment," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:20159
    DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2015-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2015-9
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/108847/1/821043641.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2015-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Volker Nitsch & Nikolaus Wolf, 2013. "Tear down this wall: on the persistence of borders in trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(1), pages 154-179, February.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
    3. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
    4. Daude, Christian & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "The pecking order of cross-border investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 94-119, January.
    5. Martin, Philippe & Rey, Helene, 2004. "Financial super-markets: size matters for asset trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 335-361, December.
    6. Mr. John Kiff & Sylwia Nowak & Miss Liliana B Schumacher, 2012. "Are Rating Agencies Powerful? An Investigation Into the Impact and Accuracy of Sovereign Ratings," IMF Working Papers 2012/023, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Rogoff, Kenneth & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2010. "Financial Globalization and Economic Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4283-4359, Elsevier.
    8. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Philippe Martin, 2009. "The Geography of Asset Trade and the Euro: Insiders and Outsiders," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Globalization, 20th Anniversary Conference, NBER-TCER-CEPR, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Charles W. Calomiris, 2011. "Incentive-Robust Financial Reform," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 31(3), pages 561-589, Fall.
    10. Kristian Behrens & Cem Ertur & Wilfried Koch, 2012. "‘Dual’ Gravity: Using Spatial Econometrics To Control For Multilateral Resistance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 773-794, August.
    11. Marco Pagano & Paolo Volpin, 2010. "Credit ratings failures and policy options [Cash-in-the-market pricing and optimal resolution of bank failures]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 401-431.
    12. Patrick Bolton & Xavier Freixas & Joel Shapiro, 2012. "The Credit Ratings Game," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 85-112, February.
    13. Suk-Joong Kim & Eliza Wu, 2018. "International Bank Flows to Emerging Markets: Influence of Sovereign Credit Ratings and Their Regional Spillover Effects," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 14, pages 467-515, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:3:p:288-299 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Mink, Mark & de Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Contagion during the Greek sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 102-113.
    16. Cameron, A. Colin & Gelbach, Jonah B. & Miller, Douglas L., 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249.
    17. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g7287gghh is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "An Introduction," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 149-150, August.
    19. Frank Partnoy, 2009. "Overdependence on Credit Ratings was a Primary Cause of the Crisis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & Philipp Hartmann & George G Kaufman (ed.), The First Credit Market Turmoil Of The 21st Century Implications for Public Policy, chapter 12, pages 175-191, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Allen, Franklin & Santomero, Anthony M., 1997. "The theory of financial intermediation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1461-1485, December.
    21. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2012. "Rating agencies' credit signals: An analysis of sovereign watch and outlook," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 45-55.
    23. Obstfeld,Maurice & Taylor,Alan M., 2005. "Global Capital Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671798.
    24. Manfred G?rtner & Bj?rn Griesbach, 2017. "Rating Agencies, Self-Fulfilling Prophecy and Multiple Equilibria? An Empirical Model of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis 2009-2011," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 7(1), pages 199-226, June.
    25. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    26. Hattari, Rabin & S. Rajan, Ramkishen, 2011. "How Different are FDI and FPI Flows?: Distance and Capital Market Integration," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 26, pages 499-525.
    27. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    28. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249, April.
    29. Philippe Jorion & Gaiyan Zhang, 2010. "Information Transfer Effects of Bond Rating Downgrades," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 683-706, August.
    30. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March.
    31. Manfred Gärtner & Björn Griesbach & Florian Jung, 2011. "PIGS or Lambs? The European Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Role of Rating Agencies," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 288-299, August.
    32. Maurice Obstfeld & Dongchul Cho & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2012. "Global Economic Crisis," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14951.
    33. Bertrand Candelon & Mr. Amadou N Sy & Mr. Rabah Arezki, 2011. "Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers: Evidence from the European Debt Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2011/068, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Rabin Hattari & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2011. "How Different are FDI and FPI Flows?: Does Distance Alter the Composition of Capital Flows?," Working Papers 092011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    35. Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August.
    36. Okawa, Yohei & van Wincoop, Eric, 2012. "Gravity in International Finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 205-215.
    37. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g7287gghh is not listed on IDEAS
    38. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1shj1p7td8e0r5c9fcsnk8a91 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Laura Márquez-Ramos, 2011. "European Accounting Harmonization: Consequences of IFRS Adoption on Trade in Goods and Foreign Direct Investments," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 42-57, September.
    40. Ludovic Moreau, 2009. "A Century of Bond Ratings as a Business," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-47, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    41. Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of Development Economics," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 5, number 6.
    42. Lawrence J. White, 2010. "Credit Rating Agencies and the Financial Crisis: Less Regulation of CRAs Is a Better Response," Working Papers 10-03, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    43. Partnoy, Frank, 2009. "Overdependence on Credit Ratings Was a Primary Cause of the Crisis," Institutions and Markets Papers 50472, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    44. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    45. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2008. "Aggregate hedge funds' flows and returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(21), pages 1755-1764.
    46. A. Colin Cameron & Pravin K. Trivedi, 2010. "Microeconometrics Using Stata, Revised Edition," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number musr, March.
    47. Charles W. Calomiris, 2011. "An Incentive‐Robust Programme For Financial Reform," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s2), pages 39-72, September.
    48. Joakim Westerlund & Fredrik Wilhelmsson, 2009. "Estimating the gravity model without gravity using panel data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 641-649.
    49. van Wincoop, Eric & Warnock, Francis E., 2010. "Can trade costs in goods explain home bias in assets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1108-1123, October.
    50. Efraim Benmelech & Jennifer Dlugosz, 2010. "The Credit Rating Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 161-207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Norbert Gaillard, 2012. "A Century of Sovereign Ratings," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-1-4614-0523-8, November.
    52. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "Leads and lags in sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2614-2626, November.
    53. Frank Partnoy, 2009. "Overdependence on Credit Ratings Was a Primary Cause of the Crisis," Working Papers 2009.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    54. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    55. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    56. Jakob De Haan & Fabian Amtenbrink, 2011. "Credit Rating Agencies," Chapters, in: Sylvester Eijffinger & Donato Masciandaro (ed.), Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, chapter 19, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juliana D. Araujo & Povilas Lastauskas & Chris Papageorgiou, 2017. "Evolution of Bilateral Capital Flows to Developing Countries at Intensive and Extensive Margins," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1517-1554, October.
    2. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
    3. Okawa, Yohei & van Wincoop, Eric, 2012. "Gravity in International Finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 205-215.
    4. Chiţu, Livia & Eichengreen, Barry & Mehl, Arnaud, 2014. "History, gravity and international finance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 104-129.
    5. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    6. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g81p7j6b6 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hamano, Masashige, 2015. "International equity and bond positions in a DSGE model with variety risk in consumption," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 212-226.
    9. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick, 2021. "Trade and capital flows: Substitutes or complements? An empirical investigation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 573-589, August.
    10. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Papaioannou, Elias, 2009. "What drives international financial flows? Politics, institutions and other determinants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 269-281, March.
    13. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2013. "Promotion and Relegation between Country Risk Classes as Maintained by Country Risk Rating Agencies," Working Papers 376, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1shj1p7td8e0r5c9fcsnk8a91 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Aggelos KOTIOS & George GALANOS & Spyros ROUKANAS, 2012. "The Rating Agencies In The International Political Economy," Scientific Bulletin - Economic Sciences, University of Pitesti, vol. 11(1), pages 3-15.
    16. Bernal, Oscar & Girard, Alexandre & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2016. "The importance of conflicts of interest in attributing sovereign credit ratings," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 48-66.
    17. Giorgio Barba Navaretti & Giacomo Calzolari & Alberto Franco Pozzolo & Maria Teresa Trentinaglia Daverio, 2019. "Few Large with Many Small: Banks Size Distribution and Cross-Border Financial Linkages," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 229-258, December.
    18. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2014. "Assessing International Efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 523-584, Elsevier.
    19. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g81p7j6b6 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Herrmann, Sabine & Winkler, Adalbert, 2009. "Real convergence, financial markets, and the current account - Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 100-123, August.
    21. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g81p7j6b6 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Fratzscher, Marcel & Imbs, Jean, 2009. "Risk sharing, finance, and institutions in international portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 428-447, December.
    23. repec:mth:ijafr8:v:9:y:2019:i:1:p:209-228 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 585-645, Elsevier.
    25. Fuchs , Andreas & Gehring , Kai, 2013. "The Home Bias in Sovereign Ratings," Working Papers 0552, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    26. Hattari, Rabin & S. Rajan, Ramkishen, 2011. "How Different are FDI and FPI Flows?: Distance and Capital Market Integration," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 26, pages 499-525.
    27. Brei, Michael & von Peter, Goetz, 2018. "The distance effect in banking and trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 116-137.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit rating agencies; portfolio investment; gravity model; home bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:20159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.