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Chinese food security and climate change: Agriculture futures

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  • Ye, Liming
  • Tang, Huajun
  • Wu, Wenbin
  • Yang, Peng
  • Nelson, Gerald C.
  • Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
  • Palazzo, Amanda

Abstract

Climate change is now affecting agriculture and food production in every country of the world. Here the authors present the IMPACT model results on yield, production, and net trade of major crops in China, and on daily calorie availability as an overall indicator of food security under climate change scenarios and socio-economic pathways in 2050. The obtained results show a relatively optimistic outlook on yield, production and trade toward 2050. The outcomes of calorie availability suggest that China will be able to maintain a level of at least 3,000 kilocalories per day through 2010 to 2050. Overall, Chinese agriculture is relatively resilient to climate change. It is unlikely that Chinese food security by 2050 will be compromised in the context of climate change. The major challenge to food security, however, will rise from increasing demand coupled with regional disparities in adaptive capacity to climate change. --

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its journal Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal.

Volume (Year): 8 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-39

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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:20141

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Keywords: Climate change; food security; scenario; adaptation; mitigation; policy;

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  1. Pushpam Kumar & Uwe A. Schneider, 2008. "Greenhouse gas emission mitigation through agriculture," Working Papers FNU-155, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2008.
  2. Schneider, Uwe A. & Kumar, Pushpam, 2008. "Greenhouse Gas Mitigation through Agriculture," Choices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(1).
  3. Wen S. Chern & Kimiko Ishibashi & Kiyoshi Taniguchi & Yuki Tokoyama, 2002. "Analysis of Food Consumption Behavior by Japanese Households," Working Papers 02-06, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
  4. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Synthesis Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12750, The World Bank.
  5. You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley & Wood-Sichra, Ulrike, 2007. "Generating plausible crop distribution and performance maps for Sub-Saharan Africa using a spatially disaggregated data fusion and optimization approach:," IFPRI discussion papers 725, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  6. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Palazzo, Amanda & Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Robertson, Richard & Tokgoz, Simla & Zhu, Tingju & Sulser, Timothy B. & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  7. You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley, 2006. "An entropy approach to spatial disaggregation of agricultural production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-3), pages 329-347, October.
  8. Chang, Gene Hsin & Brada, Josef C., 2006. "The paradox of China's growing under-urbanization," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 24-40, March.
  9. Chen, G.Q. & Zhang, Bo, 2010. "Greenhouse gas emissions in China 2007: Inventory and input-output analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6180-6193, October.
  10. Sachs, J.D. & Woo, W.T., 1994. "Structural Factors in the Economic Reforms of China, Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," Papers 94-01, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
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