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Chinese food security and climate change: Agriculture futures

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Listed:
  • Ye, Liming
  • Tang, Huajun
  • Wu, Wenbin
  • Yang, Peng
  • Nelson, Gerald C.
  • Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
  • Palazzo, Amanda

Abstract

Climate change is now affecting agriculture and food production in every country of the world. Here the authors present the IMPACT model results on yield, production, and net trade of major crops in China, and on daily calorie availability as an overall indicator of food security under climate change scenarios and socio-economic pathways in 2050. The obtained results show a relatively optimistic outlook on yield, production and trade toward 2050. The outcomes of calorie availability suggest that China will be able to maintain a level of at least 3,000 kilocalories per day through 2010 to 2050. Overall, Chinese agriculture is relatively resilient to climate change. It is unlikely that Chinese food security by 2050 will be compromised in the context of climate change. The major challenge to food security, however, will rise from increasing demand coupled with regional disparities in adaptive capacity to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Ye, Liming & Tang, Huajun & Wu, Wenbin & Yang, Peng & Nelson, Gerald C. & Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Palazzo, Amanda, 2014. "Chinese food security and climate change: Agriculture futures," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:20141
    DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2014-1
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    2. Hualin Xie & Yuyang Wen & Yongrok Choi & Xinmin Zhang, 2021. "Global Trends on Food Security Research: A Bibliometric Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, January.
    3. Robinson, Sherman & Mason d'Croz, Daniel & Islam, Shahnila & Sulser, Timothy B. & Robertson, Richard D. & Zhu, Tingju & Gueneau, Arthur & Pitois, Gauthier & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2015. "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model description for version 3:," IFPRI discussion papers 1483, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Beye, Assane & Komarek, Adam M., 2020. "Quantification and benefits of reducing post-harvest losses: Evidence for vegetables in Senegal," Discussion Papers 305681, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; food security; scenario; adaptation; mitigation; policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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