Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Prediction Of Bird Flu A(H5n1) Outbreaks In Taiwan By Online Auction: Experimental Results

Contents:

Author Info

  • SUN-CHONG WANG

    ()
    (Institute of Systems Biology and Bioinformatics, National Central University, Jhongli City 320, Taiwan, ROC; Epigenetics Laboratory, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON, Canada M5T 1R8, Canada)

  • JIE-JUN TSENG

    ()
    (Institute of Physics, Academia Sinica, Taipei 115, Taiwan, ROC)

  • SAI-PING LI

    ()
    (Institute of Physics, Academia Sinica, Taipei 115, Taiwan, ROC)

  • SHU-HENG CHEN

    ()
    (Department of Economics, National Chengchi University, Taipei 116, Taiwan, ROC)

Abstract

The ability of accurate epidemic prediction facilitates early preparation for the disease and minimizes losses due to any strikes. We devised a platform on the Web for users to exchange their information/opinions on the possible avian flu outbreaks in Taiwan. The likelihood of the first human infection from bird flu in Taiwan in, say, December 2005 is securitized in the form of a futures contract. Incentives are introduced via a tournament: users trade the futures in the market on our Web server in order to win the awards at the end of the tournament. We ran such a tournament during the period between December 2005 and February 2006. The results of the futures' prices correctly predicted no outbreaks of bird flu among the residents in Taiwan during the 3-month period, suggesting that the design of the futures exchange on the Web be a potentially useful tool for event forecasting. Another crucial aspect of the experiment is that, associated with the price convergence, the transaction volume also quickly converges to zero, which is closely related to the famous no-trade theorem in theoretical economics.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.worldscinet.com/cgi-bin/details.cgi?type=pdf&id=pii:S1793005706000567
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

File URL: http://www.worldscinet.com/cgi-bin/details.cgi?type=html&id=pii:S1793005706000567
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. in its journal New Mathematics and Natural Computation.

Volume (Year): 02 (2006)
Issue (Month): 03 ()
Pages: 271-279

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:wsi:nmncxx:v:02:y:2006:i:03:p:271-279

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.worldscinet.com/nmnc/nmnc.shtml

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: Avian influenza; futures exchange; market; no-trade theorem;

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:nmncxx:v:02:y:2006:i:03:p:271-279. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tai Tone Lim).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.