From Bilateral Trade To Multilateral Pressure: A Scenario Of European Union Relations With Sudan
AbstractThis paper investigates the economic consequences of a scenario in which the European Union (EU) imposes economic sanctions on Sudan. The idea of the paper is motivated by the deteriorating relations between Sudan and the EU arising from the devastating conflicts in Darfur region and related implications involving the International Criminal Court (ICC). Another factor supporting the idea is the U.S. encouragement of multilateral pressure on the country to change the behavior of the government. The global CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model of GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) and its Africa Database is employed in this paper. The simulation bans importation into the EU from Sudan as well as exportation to Sudan from the EU. The results suggest that both income and expenditure of the Sudanese GDP will decline due to sanctions. The trade balance will witness a surplus due to the big decline in the country's imports, as all imports will fall. However, the major impact is coming from the decreasing EU-sourced imports like light manufacturing, petroleum-coal products, and heavy manufacturing, which represent big shares in the total Sudanese import value. While Sudan is the clear loser, the results show that the East Asian countries, led by China, will gain in this situation. Most of Sudanese trade with the EU seems to be shifting to these countries. However, the 'Rest of Africa' region does not have any welfare losses, while it has gains in some sectors. Domestic output in MENA, Egypt, Kenya, and Ethiopia in some sectors will fall due to the EU sanctions on Sudan, reflecting the regional dimension that sanctions can have.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. in its journal Middle East Development Journal.
Volume (Year): 03 (2011)
Issue (Month): 01 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.worldscinet.com/medj/medj.shtml
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Siddig, Khalid, 2010. "Economic sanctions and trade diversions in Sudan," MPRA Paper 22041, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tai Tone Lim).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.