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Trade And The Crisis: Protect Or Recover

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Author Info

  • ROB GREGORY

    (Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, NW, Washington, D.C., 20431, USA)

  • CHRISTIAN HENN

    (Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, NW, Washington, D.C., 20431, USA)

  • BRAD MCDONALD

    ()
    (Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, NW, Washington, D.C., 20431, USA)

  • MIKA SAITO

    (Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, NW, Washington, D.C., 20431, USA)

Abstract

We show that new trade restrictions implemented since the onset of the global financial crisis have had — in the limited products targeted — a strong distortionary impact on trade. Their aggregate impact is modest, however, as most countries have resisted a widespread resort to protectionism. Looking ahead, sustained high unemployment, uneven growth, and an unwinding of government stimulus measures suggest that protectionist pressures may rise. Continuing and further enhancing monitoring of all protectionist measures will help, but the surest way to avoid such a downside scenario is to tighten multilateral trade commitments by completing the World Trade Organization (WTO) Doha Round.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. in its journal Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy.

Volume (Year): 01 (2010)
Issue (Month): 02 ()
Pages: 165-181

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Handle: RePEc:wsi:jicepx:v:01:y:2010:i:02:p:165-181

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Related research

Keywords: Protectionism; transparency; WTO; F02; F13; F40;

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References

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  1. Michael P. Leidy, 1997. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Pressures for Protection under Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Laws: Empirical Evidence from the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 132-144, March.
  2. Matthieu Bussière & Emilia Pérez‐Barreiro & Roland Straub & Daria Taglioni, 2011. "Protectionist Responses to the Crisis: Global Trends and Implications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34, pages 826-852, 05.
  3. Logan Lewis & Linda Tesar & Andrei Levchenko, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," 2010 Meeting Papers 109, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
  5. Kee, Hiau Looi & Nicita, Alessandro & Olarreaga, Marcelo, 2006. "Estimating trade restrictiveness indices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3840, The World Bank.
  6. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 2009. "The Slide to Protectionism in the Great Depression: Who Succumbed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 15142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Michael M. Knetter & Thomas J. Prusa, 2000. "Macroeconomic Factors and Antidumping Filings: Evidence from Four Countries," NBER Working Papers 8010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Iacovone, Leonardo & Zavacka, Veronika, 2009. "Banking crises and exports : lessons from the past," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5016, The World Bank.
  9. John Romalis, 2007. "Market Access, Openness and Growth," NBER Working Papers 13048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Joseph Francois & Will Martin, 2002. "Commercial Policy Variability, Bindings, and Market Access," International Trade 0210002, EconWPA.
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Cited by:
  1. Marcel Kohler & Adrian Saville, 2011. "Measuring the Impact of Trade Finance on South African Export Flows," Working Papers 232, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  2. Marga PEETERS, 2011. "The Changing Pattern in International Trade and Capital Flows of the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries in Comparison with other Oil-Exporting Countries," Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, ScientificPapers.org, vol. 1(7), pages 29, December.
  3. Peeters, Marga & Sabri, Nidal Rachid, 2012. "International financial integration of Mediterranean economies : A bird’s-eye view," MPRA Paper 38081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Marga Peeters, 2010. "The changing pattern of international trade and capital flows of the GCC countries," European Economy - Economic Papers 415, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  5. Chauvin, Nicolas Depetris & Ramos, Maria Priscila, 2013. "The welfare effect of the new wave of protectionism: The case of Argentina," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151626, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  6. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2011. "One is not enough! Understanding world trade collapses," ISS Working Papers - General Series 521, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
  7. Isabel Ortiz & Jingqing Chai & Matthew Cummins, 2011. "Identifying Fiscal Space:Options for Social and Economic Development for Children and Poor Households in 184 Countries," Working papers 1108, UNICEF,Division of Policy and Strategy.
  8. Leonardo Baccini & Soo Kim, 2012. "Preventing protectionism: International institutions and trade policy," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 369-398, December.
  9. Bradley J. McDonald & Christian Henn, 2011. "Protectionist Responses to the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 11/139, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Sabri, Nidal Rachid & Peeters, Marga & Abulaben, Diama K., 2012. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade integration among North and South Mediterranean countries," MPRA Paper 38080, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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