Consistent Factor Models For Temperature Markets
AbstractWe propose an approach for pricing and hedging weather derivatives based on including forward looking information about the temperature available to the market. This is achieved by modeling temperature forecasts by a finite dimensional factor model. Temperature dynamics are then inferred in the short end. In analogy to interest rate theory, we establish conditions which guarantee consistency of a factor model with the martingale dynamics of temperature forecasts. Finally, we consider a specific two-factor model and examine in more detail pricing and hedging of weather derivatives in this context.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance.
Volume (Year): 15 (2012)
Issue (Month): 04 ()
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Web page: http://www.worldscinet.com/ijtaf/ijtaf.shtml
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- Andreas Groll & Brenda López-Cabrera & Thilo Meyer-Brandis, 2014. "A consistent two-factor model for pricing temperature derivatives," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2014-006, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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