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Pricing Of Unemployment Insurance Products With Doubly Stochastic Markov Chains

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  • FRANCESCA BIAGINI

    ()
    (Department of Mathematics, Group of Financial Mathematics and Stochastics, University of Munich (LMU), Theresienstraße 39, 80333 Munich, Germany)

  • JAN WIDENMANN

    ()
    (Department of Mathematics, Group of Financial Mathematics and Stochastics, University of Munich (LMU), Theresienstraße 39, 80333 Munich, Germany)

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    Abstract

    This paper provides a new approach for modeling and calculating premiums for unemployment insurance products. The innovative modeling concept consists of combining the benchmark approach with its real-world pricing formula and Markov chain techniques in a doubly stochastic setting. We describe individual insurance claims based on a special type of unemployment insurance contracts, which are offered on the private insurance market. The pricing formulas are first given in a general setting and then specified under the assumption that the individual employment-unemployment process of an employee follows a time-homogeneous doubly stochastic Markov chain. In this framework, formulas for the premiums are provided depending on the ℙ-numéraire portfolio of the benchmark approach. Under a simple assumption on the ℙ-numéraire portfolio, the model is tested on its sensitivities to several parameters. With the same specification the model's employment and unemployment intensities are estimated on public data of the Federal Employment Office in Germany.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 04 ()
    Pages: 1250025-1-1250025-32

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    Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:15:y:2012:i:04:p:1250025-1-1250025-32

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    Related research

    Keywords: Unemployment insurance; benchmark approach; doubly stochastic Markov chain; actuarial martingale pricing; intensity based approach;

    References

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    1. Eckhard Platen, 2003. "A Benchmark Framework for Risk Management," Research Paper Series 113, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    3. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
    4. Eckhard Platen, 2006. "A Benchmark Approach To Finance," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 131-151.
    5. Francesca Biagini & Alessandra Cretarola & Eckhard Platen, 2012. "Local Risk-Minimization under the Benchmark Approach," Research Paper Series 319, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Sondermann, Dieter, 1991. "Reinsurance in arbitrage-free markets," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 191-202, December.
    7. Eckhard Platen, 2004. "Diversified Portfolios with Jumps in a Benchmark Framework," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, March.
    8. Hardy Hulley & Martin Schweizer, 2010. "M6 - On Minimal Market Models and Minimal Martingale Measures," Research Paper Series 280, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. Delbaen, F. & Haezendonck, J., 1989. "A martingale approach to premium calculation principles in an arbitrage free market," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 269-277, December.
    10. Dirk Becherer, 2001. "The numeraire portfolio for unbounded semimartingales," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 327-341.
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    Cited by:
    1. Francesca Biagini & Alessandra Cretarola & Eckhard Platen, 2012. "Local Risk-Minimization under the Benchmark Approach," Papers 1210.2337, arXiv.org.
    2. Ceci, Claudia & Colaneri, Katia & Cretarola, Alessandra, 2014. "A benchmark approach to risk-minimization under partial information," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 129-146.
    3. Biagini, Francesca & Groll, Andreas & Widenmann, Jan, 2013. "Intensity-based premium evaluation for unemployment insurance products," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 302-316.

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