A Nonparametric Urn-Based Approach To Interacting Failing Systems With An Application To Credit Risk Modeling
AbstractIn this paper we propose a new nonparametric approach to interacting failing systems (FS), that is systems whose probability of failure is not negligible in a fixed time horizon, a typical example being firms and financial bonds. The main purpose when studying a FS is to calculate the probability of default and the distribution of the number of failures that may occur during the observation period. A model used to study a failing system is defined default model. In particular, we present a general recursive model constructed by the means of interacting urns. After introducing the theoretical model and its properties we show a first application to credit risk modeling, showing how to assess the idiosyncratic probability of default of an obligor and the joint probability of failure of a set of obligors in a portfolio of risks, that are divided into reliability classes.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance.
Volume (Year): 13 (2010)
Issue (Month): 08 ()
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Web page: http://www.worldscinet.com/ijtaf/ijtaf.shtml
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- Fortini, S. & Petrone, S., 2012. "Hierarchical reinforced urn processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(8), pages 1521-1529.
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