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Recursive Bayesian Estimation In Forward Price Models Implied By Fair Pricing

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  • YASSINE EL QALLI

    ()
    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Cadi Ayyad University, BP 2390, Marrakesh, Morocco)

Abstract

In this paper we describe a recursive Bayesian algorithm for the estimation of forward price models. The forward price is modeled within the benchmark framework for a forward price volatility function which includes a stochastic variable; a forward price with a liquidly traded maturity. A relationship between the bond price, the spot price and certain forward prices is stated. We set up the stochastic real world dynamics for these discretely compounded market observed forward prices. We propose a dynamic Bayesian estimation algorithm for a Monte Carlo time-discretized version of the resulting forward prices dynamics. The parameter to be estimated is a vector consisting of the forward price volatility parameters and the benchmarked bond price volatility parameters.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance.

Volume (Year): 13 (2010)
Issue (Month): 02 ()
Pages: 301-333

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Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:13:y:2010:i:02:p:301-333

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Related research

Keywords: Term structure models; forward price; volatility structure; benchmark approach; Bayesian estimation; nonlinear filtering;

References

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  1. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Thuy Duong To, 2002. "A Maximum Likelihood Approach to Estimation of Heath-Jarrow-Morton Models," Research Paper Series 80, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  2. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July.
  3. Ramaprasad Bhar & Carl Chiarella, 1997. "Interest rate futures: estimation of volatility parameters in an arbitrage-free framework," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 181-199.
  4. Björk, Tomas & Landen, Camilla, 2000. "On the construction of finite dimensional realizations for nonlinear forward rate models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 420, Stockholm School of Economics.
  5. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Hing Hung & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2004. "The Volatility of the Instantaneous Spot Interest Rate Implied by Arbitrage Pricing - A Dynamic Bayesian Approach," Finance 0409002, EconWPA.
  6. Carl Chiarella & Sara Pasquali & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2001. "On Filtering in Markovian Term Structure Models (An Approximation Approach)," Research Paper Series 65, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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