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Predicting New Product Sales: The Post-Launch Performance Of 215 Innovators

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  • ALFRED KLEINKNECHT

    (TU Delft, Department of Innovation Systems, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands)

  • GERBEN VAN DER PANNE

    (TU Delft, Department of Innovation Systems, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands)

Abstract

New product sales are hard to predict. Our analysis of sales performance two years after market launch reveals that three groups of factors do not increase the accuracy of predicting new product sales: (1) A firm's general experience and experience with innovation; (2) High technological competences and strong knowledge networks; (3) Customer involvement in new product development. R&D managers should realise that experience with innovation as well as high technological competences, while possibly helpful during the development stage, do not necessarily enhance an accurate prediction of new product sales. Moreover, other than intuitively expected, networking can be ambiguous: It reduces uncertainty about future sales performance by providing information; but it may also enhance knowledge leaking to competitors, thus increasing probabilities of unexpected failure.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfred Kleinknecht & Gerben Van Der Panne, 2012. "Predicting New Product Sales: The Post-Launch Performance Of 215 Innovators," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(02), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijimxx:v:16:y:2012:i:02:n:s1363919611003544
    DOI: 10.1142/S1363919611003544
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard C. Levin & Alvin K. Klevorick & Richard R. Nelson & Sidney G. Winter, 1987. "Appropriating the Returns from Industrial Research and Development," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(3, Specia), pages 783-832.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brazauskaitė Indrė & Auruškevičienė Viltė, 2017. "Moderating Role of Environmental Settings in Relationship Between Product Innovativeness and Its Performance During the Launch," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 31(1), pages 44-54, August.
    2. Deligianni, Ioanna & Voudouris, Irini & Spanos, Yiannis & Lioukas, Spyros, 2019. "Non-linear effects of technological competence on product innovation in new technology-based firms: Resource orchestration and the role of the entrepreneur's political competence and prior start-up ex," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    New product success; entrepreneurship uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

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