Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Fractal Markets Hypothesis And The Global Financial Crisis: Scaling, Investment Horizons And Liquidity

Contents:

Author Info

  • LADISLAV KRISTOUFEK

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Opletalova 26, 110 00, Prague, Czech Republic; Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod Vodarenskou vezi 4, 182 08, Prague, Czech Republic)

Abstract

We investigate whether the fractal markets hypothesis and its focus on liquidity and investment horizons give reasonable predictions about the dynamics of the financial markets during turbulences such as the Global Financial Crisis of late 2000s. Compared to the mainstream efficient markets hypothesis, the fractal markets hypothesis considers the financial markets as complex systems consisting of many heterogenous agents, which are distinguishable mainly with respect to their investment horizon. In the paper, several novel measures of trading activity at different investment horizons are introduced through the scaling of variance of the underlying processes. On the three most liquid US indices — DJI, NASDAQ and S&P500 — we show that the predictions of the fractal markets hypothesis actually fit the observed behavior adequately.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.worldscinet.com/cgi-bin/details.cgi?type=pdf&id=pii:S0219525912500658
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

File URL: http://www.worldscinet.com/cgi-bin/details.cgi?type=html&id=pii:S0219525912500658
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. in its journal Advances in Complex Systems.

Volume (Year): 15 (2012)
Issue (Month): 06 ()
Pages: 1250065-1-1250065-13

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:wsi:acsxxx:v:15:y:2012:i:06:p:1250065-1-1250065-13

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.worldscinet.com/acs/acs.shtml

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: Fractal markets hypothesis; scaling; fractality; investment horizons; efficient markets hypothesis;

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Barunik, Jozef & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2010. "On Hurst exponent estimation under heavy-tailed distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(18), pages 3844-3855.
  2. T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & Michel M. Dacorogna, 2005. "Long-term memories of developed and emerging markets: Using the scaling analysis to characterize their stage of development," Econometrics 0503004, EconWPA.
  3. Onali, Enrico & Goddard, John, 2011. "Are European equity markets efficient? New evidence from fractal analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 59-67, April.
  4. Domino, Krzysztof, 2012. "The use of the Hurst exponent to investigate the global maximum of the Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG20 index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(1), pages 156-169.
  5. Czarnecki, Łukasz & Grech, Dariusz & Pamuła, Grzegorz, 2008. "Comparison study of global and local approaches describing critical phenomena on the Polish stock exchange market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(27), pages 6801-6811.
  6. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
  7. Ladislav Kristoufek, 2012. "Multifractal Height Cross-Correlation Analysis: A New Method for Analyzing Long-Range Cross-Correlations," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 1201.3473, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management, revised Jan 2012.
  8. Domino, Krzysztof, 2011. "The use of the Hurst exponent to predict changes in trends on the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(1), pages 98-109.
  9. Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
  10. Onali, Enrico & Goddard, John, 2009. "Unifractality and multifractality in the Italian stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 154-163, September.
  11. Stanley, H.E & Amaral, L.A.N & Canning, D & Gopikrishnan, P & Lee, Y & Liu, Y, 1999. "Econophysics: Can physicists contribute to the science of economics?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 269(1), pages 156-169.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Morales, Raffaello & Di Matteo, T. & Aste, Tomaso, 2013. "Non-stationary multifractality in stock returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(24), pages 6470-6483.
  2. Ladislav Kristoufek, 2013. "Fractal Markets Hypothesis and the Global Financial Crisis: Wavelet Power Evidence," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 1310.1446, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
  3. Ladislav Kristoufek & Miloslav Vosvrda, 2012. "Measuring capital market efficiency: Global and local correlations structure," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 1208.1298, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
  4. Todea, Alexandru & Pleşoianu, Anita, 2013. "The influence of foreign portfolio investment on informational efficiency: Empirical evidence from Central and Eastern European stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 34-41.
  5. Eric Kemp-Benedict, 2012. "Price and Quantity Trajectories: Second-order Dynamics," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 1204.3156, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:acsxxx:v:15:y:2012:i:06:p:1250065-1-1250065-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tai Tone Lim).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.