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Base Rate Neglect For The Wealth Of Interacting People

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  • DIEMO URBIG

    ()
    (Department of Management, University of Antwerp, Prinsstraat, 13 (Z.107), 2000 Antwerp, Belgium)

Abstract

Previous research investigating base rate neglect as a bias in human information processing has focused on isolated individuals. This study complements this research by showing that in settings of interacting individuals, especially in settings of social learning, where individuals can learn from one another, base rate neglect can increase a population's welfare. This study further supports the research arguing that a population with members biased by neglecting base rates does not need to perform worse than a population with unbiased members. Adapting the model of social learning suggested by Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer and Welch (The Journal of Political Economy 100 (1992) 992–1026) and including base rates that differ from generic cases such as 50–50, conditions are identified that make underweighting base rate information increasing the population's welfare. The base rate neglect can start a social learning process that otherwise had not been started and thus base rate neglect can generate positive externalities improving a population's welfare.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. in its journal Advances in Complex Systems.

Volume (Year): 13 (2010)
Issue (Month): 05 ()
Pages: 607-619

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Handle: RePEc:wsi:acsxxx:v:13:y:2010:i:05:p:607-619

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Related research

Keywords: Cognitive biases; base rate neglect; social learning; information cascades; ecological rationality;

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