Multifractality And Long-Range Dependence Of Asset Returns: The Scaling Behavior Of The Markov-Switching Multifractal Model With Lognormal Volatility Components
AbstractIn this paper, we consider daily financial data from various sources (stock market indices, foreign exchange rates and bonds) and analyze their multiscaling properties by estimating the parameters of a Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) model with Lognormal volatility components. In order to see how well estimated models capture the temporal dependency of the empirical data, we estimate and compare (generalized) Hurst exponents for both empirical data and simulated MSM models. In general, the Lognormal MSM models generate "apparent" long memory in good agreement with empirical scaling provided that one uses sufficiently many volatility components. In comparison with a Binomial MSM specification , results are almost identical. This suggests that a parsimonious discrete specification is flexible enough and the gain from adopting the continuous Lognormal distribution is very limited.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. in its journal Advances in Complex Systems.
Volume (Year): 11 (2008)
Issue (Month): 05 ()
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Web page: http://www.worldscinet.com/acs/acs.shtml
Other versions of this item:
- Liu, Ruipeng & Di Matteo, Tiziana & Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Multifractality and long-range dependence of asset returns: The scaling behaviour of the Markov-switching multifractal model with lognormal volatility components," Economics Working Papers 2008,09, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Ruipeng Liu & Tiziana Di Matteo & Thomas Lux, 2008. "Multifractality and Long-Range Dependence of Asset Returns: The Scaling Behaviour of the Markov-Switching Multifractal Model with Lognormal Volatility Components," Kiel Working Papers 1427, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
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- Raffaello Morales & T. Di Matteo & Ruggero Gramatica & Tomaso Aste, 2011. "Dynamical Hurst exponent as a tool to monitor unstable periods in financial time series," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 1109.0465, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- Jozef Barunik & Tomaso Aste & Tiziana Di Matteo & Ruipeng Liu, 2012.
"Understanding the source of multifractality in financial markets,"
Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive
1201.1535, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management, revised Jan 2012.
- Barunik, Jozef & Aste, Tomaso & Di Matteo, T. & Liu, Ruipeng, 2012. "Understanding the source of multifractality in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(17), pages 4234-4251.
- Morales, Raffaello & Di Matteo, T. & Gramatica, Ruggero & Aste, Tomaso, 2012. "Dynamical generalized Hurst exponent as a tool to monitor unstable periods in financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(11), pages 3180-3189.
- Morales, Raffaello & Di Matteo, T. & Aste, Tomaso, 2013. "Non-stationary multifractality in stock returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(24), pages 6470-6483.
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