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Cyclical Behavior Of Prices In The G7 Countries Through Wavelet Analysis

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Author Info

  • MAURO GALLEGATI

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy)

  • ANTONIO PALESTRINI

    ()
    (DSGSS, University of Teramo, Teramo, Italy)

  • MILENA PETRINI

    ()
    (Department of Mathematical Sciences, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy)

Abstract

Our analysis, conducted using the GDP and the GDP deflator time series (OECD source; 1960–2001) for the G7 countries, shows the robustness of the negative covariance between the GDP and its deflator, but only over long run horizons. Through wavelet decomposition we evaluate the price–output relationship at different time scales, where most countries reveal similar patterns. More precisely, at short time scales a positive correlation seems to appear whereas, and consequently, a regime switch occurs at a time horizon of about two years leading to a negative relationship for higher horizons. These results seem to suggest that the negative or acyclical relationship usually found after the 1960s may be the composite effect of different time scale correlations, where the four-year-horizon component seems to have the greatest influence. In particular for Canada, France, and Italy we observe something like a rotation of the price–output relationship between the countercyclical and the procyclical relationship. Finally, our analysis shows that even the relationship between the two series does not seem to be very stable regarding the lead and lag structure also. The phase is nonlinear for all the countries and, consequently, the group delay (the lag) is not constant. In particular, looking at the time scale we observe an inversion of the local monotonicity at the frequency of about 0.3–0.35 for all G7 countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. in its journal Advances in Complex Systems.

Volume (Year): 11 (2008)
Issue (Month): 01 ()
Pages: 119-130

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Handle: RePEc:wsi:acsxxx:v:11:y:2008:i:01:p:119-130

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Related research

Keywords: Price–output relationship; discrete wavelet transform;

References

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  1. Sharif Md. Raihan & Yi Wen & Bing Zeng, 2005. "Wavelet: a new tool for business cycle analysis," Working Papers 2005-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Ramsey, James B. & Lampart, Camille, 1998. "Decomposition Of Economic Relationships By Timescale Using Wavelets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 49-71, March.
  3. Wouter J. Den Haan & Steven Sumner, 2001. "The Comovements between Real Activity and Prices in the G7," NBER Working Papers 8195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jesus Vazquez, 2002. "The co-movement between output and prices in the EU15 countries: an empirical investigation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(14), pages 957-966.
  5. Oliver J. Blanchard, 1997. "The Medium Run," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 89-158.
  6. Lee, Jim, 2006. "The comovement between output and prices: Evidence from a dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 110-116, April.
  7. James Peery Cover & C. James Hueng, 2003. "The Correlation between Shocks to Output and the Price Level: Evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 75-92, July.
  8. Gençay, Ramazan & Selçuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2001. "Differentiating intraday seasonalities through wavelet multi-scaling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 289(3), pages 543-556.
  9. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rua, António, 2010. "Measuring comovement in the time-frequency space," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 685-691, June.
  2. Rua, António & Nunes, Luis C., 2012. "A wavelet-based assessment of market risk: The emerging markets case," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 84-92.
  3. António Rua, 2010. "A Wavelet Approach for Factor-Augmented Forecasting," Working Papers w201007, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  4. Gazi Salah Uddin & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2013. "Measuring co-movement of oil price and exchange rate differential in Bangladesh," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 1922-1930.
  5. António Rua & Artur Silva Lopes, 2012. "Cohesion within the euro area and the U. S.: a wavelet-based view," Working Papers w201204, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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