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Trading Behavior And Excess Volatility In Toy Markets

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Author Info
MATTEO MARSILI () (Istituto Nazionale per la Fisica della Materia (INFM), Trieste-SISSA Unit, V. Beirut 2-4, Trieste I-34014, Italy)
DAMIEN CHALLET (Institut de Physique Théorique, Université de Fribourg, Perolles, CH-1700, Fribourg, Switzerland)

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Abstract

We study the relation between the trading behavior of agents and volatility in toy markets of adaptive inductively rational agents. We show that excess volatility, in such simplified markets, arises as a consequence of (i) the neglect of market impact implicit in price taking behavior and of (ii) excessive reactivity of agents. These issues are dealt with in detail in the simple case without public information. We also derive, for the general case, the critical learning rate above which trading behavior leads to turbulent dynamics of the market.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. in its journal Advances in Complex Systems.

Volume (Year): 04 (2001)
Issue (Month): 01 ()
Pages: 3-17
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Handle: RePEc:wsi:acsxxx:v:04:y:2001:i:01:p:3-17

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Related research
Keywords: Statistical mechanics; El Farol bar problem; minority games; market impact; adaptive learning;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Arthur, W Brian, 1994. "Inductive Reasoning and Bounded Rationality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 406-11, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kets, W., 2007. "The Minority Game: An Economics Perspective," Discussion Paper 2007-53, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Paul Jefferies & Michael Hart & Neil Johnson & P.M. Hui, 2001. "From market games to real-world markets," OFRC Working Papers Series 2001mf02, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. Giorgio Fagiolo & Marco Valente, 2005. "Minority Games, Local Interactions, and Endogenous Networks," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 41-57, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Damien Challet & Tobias Galla, 2005. "Price return autocorrelation and predictability in agent-based models of financial markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(6), pages 569-576, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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