This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Forecasting among alternative strategies in the management of uncertainty

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Tobias F. Rötheli (Department of Economics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland)
Abstract

This paper explores why expectations elicited from corporate decision-makers may fall short of the rational expectations ideal: the formation of an informed forecast may just not be part of the optimal management of uncertainty. The analysis of an investment decision shows that when forecasting is expensive, this strategy is likely to be superseded by the possibility to wait, to switch between projects, or the alternative to eliminate inferior projects over time. Even at low forecasting costs it may be optimal not to forecast and instead to diversify over different projects. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Download Info
To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Managerial and Decision Economics.

Volume (Year): 19 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 179-187
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:19:y:1998:i:3:p:179-187

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/7976

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ghosal, Vivek, 2007. "Small is Beautiful but Size Matters: The Asymmetric Impact of Uncertainty and Sunk Costs on Small and Large Businesses," MPRA Paper 5461, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jonathan P. O'Brien & Timothy B. Folta & Douglas R. Johnson, 2003. "A real options perspective on entrepreneurial entry in the face of uncertainty," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 515-533. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? All top Economics journals are listed on RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-29.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.