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The joint credit risk of UK global‐systemically important banks

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  • Mario Cerrato
  • John Crosby
  • Minjoo Kim
  • Yang Zhao

Abstract

We study the joint credit risk in the UK banking sector using the weekly CDS spreads of global systemically important banks over 2007–2015. We show that the time‐varying and asymmetric dependence structure of the CDS spread changes is closely related to the joint default probability that two or more banks simultaneously default. We are able to flexibly measure the joint credit risk at the high‐frequency level by applying the combination of the reduced‐form model and the GAS‐based dynamic asymmetric copula model to the CDS spreads. We also verify that much of the dependence structure of the CDS spread changes are driven by the market factors. Overall, our study demonstrates that the market factors are key inputs for the effective management of the systemic credit risk in the banking sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Cerrato & John Crosby & Minjoo Kim & Yang Zhao, 2017. "The joint credit risk of UK global‐systemically important banks," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(10), pages 964-988, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:37:y:2017:i:10:p:964-988
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    Cited by:

    1. Hoang Nguyen & Audron.e Virbickait.e & M. Concepci'on Aus'in & Pedro Galeano, 2024. "Structured factor copulas for modeling the systemic risk of European and United States banks," Papers 2401.03443, arXiv.org.
    2. Lazar, Emese & Xue, Xiaohan, 2020. "Forecasting risk measures using intraday data in a generalized autoregressive score framework," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1057-1072.
    3. Ouyang, Ruolan & Chen, Xiang & Fang, Yi & Zhao, Yang, 2022. "Systemic risk of commodity markets: A dynamic factor copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Mario Cerrato & Danyang Li & Zhekai Zhang, 2020. "Factor Investing and forex Portfolio Management," Working Papers 2020_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    5. Prakash Singh & Sukriti Kumar, 2018. "Risks in banks and its impact on volatility of market returns: an empirical approach," International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 17(2), pages 125-138.
    6. Li, Danyang & Zhang, Zhekai & Cerrato, Mario, 2023. "Factor investing and currency portfolio management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

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