IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/japmet/v35y2020i7p879-892.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing for overconfidence statistically: A moment inequality approach

Author

Listed:
  • Yanchun Jin
  • Ryo Okui

Abstract

We propose a moment inequality approach to test for the presence of overconfidence using data from ranking experiments where subjects rank themselves relative to other experimental participants. Although a ranking experiment is a typical way to collect data for the analysis of overconfidence, recent studies show that the resulting data may apparently indicate overconfidence even if participants are purely rational Bayesian updaters, in which case a set of inequalities hold. We apply state‐of‐the‐art tests of moment inequalities to test such a set of inequalities. We examine the data from a traditional ranking experiment as well as those from more sophisticated designs.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanchun Jin & Ryo Okui, 2020. "Testing for overconfidence statistically: A moment inequality approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 879-892, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:35:y:2020:i:7:p:879-892
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2780
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2780
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/jae.2780?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Victor Chernozhukov & Sokbae Lee & Adam M. Rosen, 2013. "Intersection Bounds: Estimation and Inference," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(2), pages 667-737, March.
    2. Markus M. Möbius & Muriel Niederle & Paul Niehaus & Tanya S. Rosenblat, 2022. "Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 7793-7817, November.
    3. Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh & Michael Wolf, 2014. "A Practical Two‐Step Method for Testing Moment Inequalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 1979-2002, September.
    4. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer, 2015. "Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 61-88, Fall.
    5. Ulrike Malmendier & Timothy Taylor, 2015. "On the Verges of Overconfidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 3-8, Fall.
    6. Juan Dubra, 2004. "Optimism and Overconfidence in Search," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(1), pages 198-218, January.
    7. José Luis Montiel Olea & Tomasz Strzalecki, 2014. "Axiomatization and Measurement of Quasi-Hyperbolic Discounting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(3), pages 1449-1499.
    8. Donald W. K. Andrews & Panle Jia Barwick, 2012. "Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities: A Recommended Moment Selection Procedure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2805-2826, November.
    9. Federico Ciliberto & Elie Tamer, 2009. "Market Structure and Multiple Equilibria in Airline Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(6), pages 1791-1828, November.
    10. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2015. "Behavioral CEOs: The Role of Managerial Overconfidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 37-60, Fall.
    11. Michael D. Grubb, 2015. "Overconfident Consumers in the Marketplace," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 9-36, Fall.
    12. John A. List & Azeem M. Shaikh & Yang Xu, 2019. "Multiple hypothesis testing in experimental economics," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(4), pages 773-793, December.
    13. Jean-Pierre Benoît & Juan Dubra & Don A. Moore, 2015. "Does The Better-Than-Average Effect Show That People Are Overconfident?: Two Experiments," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 293-329, April.
    14. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
    15. Simon Gervais & Itay Goldstein, 2007. "The Positive Effects of Biased Self-Perceptions in Firms," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(3), pages 453-496.
    16. Hirshleifer, David & Daniel, Kent, 2015. "Overconfident investors, predictable returns, and excessive trading," MPRA Paper 69002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Allen, Roy, 2018. "Testing moment inequalities: Selection versus recentering," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 124-126.
    18. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    19. Jean‐Pierre Benoît & Juan Dubra, 2011. "Apparent Overconfidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1591-1625, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ryo Okui, 2021. "A moment inequality approach to statistical inference for rankings," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(2), pages 169-184, April.
    2. Kishishita, Daiki & Yamagishi, Atsushi & Matsumoto, Tomoko, 2023. "Overconfidence, income-ability gap, and preferences for income equality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheung, Stephen L. & Johnstone, Lachlan, 2017. "True Overconfidence, Revealed through Actions: An Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 10545, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Zahra Murad & Martin Sefton & Chris Starmer, 2016. "How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 21-46, February.
    3. Kataria, Mitesh, 2017. "How long do you think it will take? Field Evidence on Gender Differences in Time Optimism," Working Papers in Economics 694, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    4. Martin Chegere & Paolo Falco & Marco Nieddiu & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Mattea Stein, 2022. "It’s a Sure Win! Experimental evidence on overconfidence in betting behavior," CSEF Working Papers 655, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    5. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2016. "Overconfidence And Real Estate Research: A Survey Of The Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    6. Francesco Angelini & Massimiliano Castellani & Lorenzo Zirulia, 2022. "Overconfidence in the art market: a bargaining pricing model with asymmetric disinformation," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 39(3), pages 961-988, October.
    7. Friehe, Tim & Pannenberg, Markus, 2019. "Overconfidence over the lifespan: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Hestermann, Nina & Le Yaouanq, Yves, 2018. "It\'s not my Fault! Self-Confidence and Experimentation," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 124, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    9. Murad, Zahra & Starmer, Chris, 2021. "Confidence snowballing and relative performance feedback," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 550-572.
    10. Bucciol, Alessandro & Quercia, Simone & Sconti, Alessia, 2021. "Promoting financial literacy among the elderly: Consequences on confidence," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    11. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Kengo Kato, 2013. "Testing Many Moment Inequalities," CeMMAP working papers 65/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    12. Francesca Molinari, 2020. "Microeconometrics with Partial Identi?cation," CeMMAP working papers CWP15/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    13. Aradillas-López, Andrés & Rosen, Adam M., 2022. "Inference in ordered response games with complete information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(2), pages 451-476.
    14. Lee, Sokbae & Song, Kyungchul & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2018. "Testing For A General Class Of Functional Inequalities," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(5), pages 1018-1064, October.
    15. Juan Dubra & Jean-Pierre Benoît & Giorgia Romagnoli, 2019. "Belief elicitation when more than money matters," Documentos de Trabajo/Working Papers 1901, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia. Universidad de Montevideo..
    16. Dominik M. Piehlmaier, 2022. "Overconfidence and the adoption of robo-advice: why overconfident investors drive the expansion of automated financial advice," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
    17. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2019. "Overconfidence, subjective perception and pricing behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 107-132.
    18. Louis Lévy-Garboua & Muniza Askari & Marco Gazel, 2018. "Confidence biases and learning among intuitive Bayesians," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(3), pages 453-482, May.
    19. Hoyer, Britta & van Huizen, Thomas & Keijzer, Linda & Rezaei, Sarah & Rosenkranz, Stephanie & Westbrock, Bastian, 2020. "Gender, competitiveness, and task difficulty: Evidence from the field," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    20. Huffman, David B. & Raymond, Collin & Shvets, Julia, 2023. "Persistent Overconfidence and Biased Memory: Evidence from Managers," IZA Discussion Papers 16283, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:35:y:2020:i:7:p:879-892. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.