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Trade creation and diversion revisited: Accounting for model uncertainty and natural trading partner effects

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  • Theo S. Eicher
  • Christian Henn
  • Chris Papageorgiou

Abstract

Trade theories covering Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are as diverse as the literature in search of their empirical support. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing PTA theories, we introduce Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to the PTA literature. BMA minimizes the sum of Type I and Type II error, the mean squared error, and generates predictive distributions with optimal predictive performance. Once model uncertainty is addressed as part of the empirical strategy, we report clear evidence of Trade Creation, Trade Diversion, and Open Bloc effects. After controlling for natural trading partner effects, Trade Creation is weaker – except for the EU. To calculate the actual effects of PTAs on trade flows we show that the analysis must be comprehensive: it must control for Trade Creation and Diversion as well as all possible PTAs. Several prominent control variables are also shown to be robustly related to Trade Creation; they relate to factor endowments and economic policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 27 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (03)
Pages: 296-321

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Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:27:y:2012:i:2:p:296-321

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  1. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 266, OECD Publishing.
  2. Luis A. Rivera-Batiz & Paul M. Romer, 1990. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 3528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Thomas J. Prusa & Robert Teh, 2010. "Protection Reduction and Diversion: PTAs and the Incidence of Antidumping Disputes," NBER Working Papers 16276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Christoph Moser & Andrew K. Rose, 2011. "Who Benefits from Regional Trade Agreements? The View from the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 17415, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Neil Foster-McGregor & Robert Stehrer, 2010. "Preferential Trade Agreements and the Structure of International Trade," wiiw Working Papers 61, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  4. Huigang Chen & Alin Mirestean & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2011. "Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model," IMF Working Papers 11/230, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Christian Henn & Theo S. Eicher, 2009. "One Money,one Market," IMF Working Papers 09/186, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Nakhoda, Aadil, 2013. "The impact of the exports of BRIC countries plus Turkey on the exports of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 52477, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Vanina Forget, 2012. "Doing well and doing good: a multi-dimensional puzzle," Working Papers hal-00672037, HAL.
  8. Andros Kourtellos & Ioanna Stylianou & Chih Ming Tan, 2013. "Robust Multiple Regimes in Growth Volatility," Working Paper Series 52_13, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  9. Prüfer, P. & Tondl, G., 2008. "The FDI-Growth Nexus in Latin America: The Role of Source Countries and Local Conditions," Discussion Paper 2008-61, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  10. Theo S Eicher & Lindy Helfman & Alex Lenkoski, 2011. "Robust FDI Determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging In The Presence Of Selection Bias," Working Papers UWEC-2011-07-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  11. Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2010. "Model averaging in economics," MPRA Paper 26047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Magnus, Jan R. & Powell, Owen & Prüfer, Patricia, 2010. "A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 139-153, February.
  13. Theo S. Eicher & Christian Henn, 2009. "In Search of WTO Trade Effects," IMF Working Papers 09/31, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Magnus, J.R. & Powell, O.R. & Prüfer, P., 2008. "A Comparison of Two Averaging Techniques with an Application to Growth Empirics," Discussion Paper 2008-39, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.

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