IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/hlthec/v19y2010i5p518-531.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic versus static models in cost‐effectiveness analyses of anti‐viral drug therapy to mitigate an influenza pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Anna K. Lugnér
  • Sido D. Mylius
  • Jacco Wallinga

Abstract

Conventional (static) models used in health economics implicitly assume that the probability of disease exposure is constant over time and unaffected by interventions. For transmissible infectious diseases this is not realistic and another class of models is required, so‐called dynamic models. This study aims to examine the differences between one dynamic and one static model, estimating the effects of therapeutic treatment with antiviral (AV) drugs during an influenza pandemic in the Netherlands. Specifically, we focus on the sensitivity of the cost‐effectiveness ratios to model choice, to the assumed drug coverage, and to the value of several epidemiological factors. Therapeutic use of AV‐drugs is cost‐effective compared with non‐intervention, irrespective of which model approach is chosen. The findings further show that: (1) the cost‐effectiveness ratio according to the static model is insensitive to the size of a pandemic, whereas the ratio according to the dynamic model increases with the size of a pandemic; (2) according to the dynamic model, the cost per infection and the life‐years gained per treatment are not constant but depend on the proportion of cases that are treated; and (3) the age‐specific clinical attack rates affect the sensitivity of cost‐effectiveness ratio to model choice. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna K. Lugnér & Sido D. Mylius & Jacco Wallinga, 2010. "Dynamic versus static models in cost‐effectiveness analyses of anti‐viral drug therapy to mitigate an influenza pandemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 518-531, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:19:y:2010:i:5:p:518-531
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.1485
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.1485
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/hec.1485?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Brisson & W. J. Edmunds, 2006. "Impact of Model, Methodological, and Parameter Uncertainty in the Economic Analysis of Vaccination Programs," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 26(5), pages 434-446, September.
    2. Helen J Wearing & Pejman Rohani & Matt J Keeling, 2005. "Appropriate Models for the Management of Infectious Diseases," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(7), pages 1-1, July.
    3. Geoffard, Pierre-Yves & Philipson, Tomas, 1997. "Disease Eradication: Private versus Public Vaccination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 222-230, March.
    4. Sun-Young Kim & Sue Goldie, 2008. "Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Vaccination Programmes," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 191-215, March.
    5. Koopmanschap, Marc A. & Rutten, Frans F. H. & van Ineveld, B. Martin & van Roijen, Leona, 1995. "The friction cost method for measuring indirect costs of disease," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 171-189, June.
    6. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson & M. G. Myriam Hunink & Thomas A. Mazzuchi & Daniel Lewandowski & Dorota Kurowicka & Roger M. Cooke, 2008. "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Dynamic Economic Evaluation Model for Vaccination Programs," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 28(2), pages 182-200, March.
    7. Brandeau, Margaret L. & Zaric, Gregory S. & Richter, Anke, 2003. "Resource allocation for control of infectious diseases in multiple independent populations: beyond cost-effectiveness analysis," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 575-598, July.
    8. Alan Brennan & Stephen E. Chick & Ruth Davies, 2006. "A taxonomy of model structures for economic evaluation of health technologies," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(12), pages 1295-1310, December.
    9. M. Brisson & W. J. Edmunds, 2003. "Economic Evaluation of Vaccination Programs: The Impact of Herd-Immunity," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 23(1), pages 76-82, January.
    10. Andrea Anonychuk & Andrea Tricco & Chris Bauch & Ba’ Pham & Vladimir Gilca & Bernard Duval & Ava John-Baptiste & Gloria Woo & Murray Krahn, 2008. "Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Hepatitis A Vaccine," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 17-32, January.
    11. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A.T. Cummings & Simon Cauchemez & Christophe Fraser & Steven Riley & Aronrag Meeyai & Sopon Iamsirithaworn & Donald S. Burke, 2005. "Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7056), pages 209-214, September.
    12. Frank A. Sonnenberg & J. Robert Beck, 1993. "Markov Models in Medical Decision Making," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 13(4), pages 322-338, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Klumpp & Dominic Loske & Silvio Bicciato, 2022. "COVID-19 health policy evaluation: integrating health and economic perspectives with a data envelopment analysis approach," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(8), pages 1263-1285, November.
    2. Abdur Razzaque Sarker & Marufa Sultana, 2020. "Cost-effective analysis of childhood malaria vaccination in endemic hotspots of Bangladesh," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-15, May.
    3. Román Pérez Velasco & Naiyana Praditsitthikorn & Kamonthip Wichmann & Adun Mohara & Surachai Kotirum & Sripen Tantivess & Constanza Vallenas & Hande Harmanci & Yot Teerawattananon, 2012. "Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations of Preparedness Strategies and Interventions against Influenza Pandemics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(2), pages 1-9, February.
    4. Richard E Nelson & Makoto Jones & Molly Leecaster & Matthew H Samore & William Ray & Angela Huttner & Benedikt Huttner & Karim Khader & Vanessa W Stevens & Dale Gerding & Marin L Schweizer & Michael A, 2016. "An Economic Analysis of Strategies to Control Clostridium Difficile Transmission and Infection Using an Agent-Based Simulation Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sun-Young Kim & Sue Goldie, 2008. "Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Vaccination Programmes," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 191-215, March.
    2. Greg Plosker, 2011. "Rotavirus Vaccine RIX4414 (Rotarix™)," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 29(11), pages 989-1009, November.
    3. Joke Bilcke & Philippe Beutels, 2009. "Reviewing the Cost Effectiveness of Rotavirus Vaccination," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 281-297, April.
    4. van Ackere, Ann & Schulz, Peter J., 2020. "Explaining vaccination decisions: A system dynamics model of the interaction between epidemiological and behavioural factors," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Linus Nyiwul, 2021. "Epidemic Control and Resource Allocation: Approaches and Implications for the Management of COVID-19," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 9(2), pages 283-305, December.
    6. F. Tomini & F. Prinzen & A. D. I. Asselt, 2016. "A review of economic evaluation models for cardiac resynchronization therapy with implantable cardioverter defibrillators in patients with heart failure," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(9), pages 1159-1172, December.
    7. Sabina Alistar & Elisa Long & Margaret Brandeau & Eduard Beck, 2014. "HIV epidemic control—a model for optimal allocation of prevention and treatment resources," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 162-181, June.
    8. Bekiros, Stelios & Kouloumpou, Dimitra, 2020. "SBDiEM: A new mathematical model of infectious disease dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    9. Sarang Deo & Sameer Mehta & Charles J. Corbett, 2022. "Optimal Scale‐Up of HIV Treatment Programs in Resource‐Limited Settings Under Supply Uncertainty," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(3), pages 883-905, March.
    10. Laurent Coudeville & Annelies Van Rie & Denis Getsios & J Jaime Caro & Pascal Crépey & Van Hung Nguyen, 2009. "Adult Vaccination Strategies for the Control of Pertussis in the United States: An Economic Evaluation Including the Dynamic Population Effects," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(7), pages 1-9, July.
    11. Peng Sun & Liu Yang & Francis de Véricourt, 2009. "Selfish Drug Allocation for Containing an International Influenza Pandemic at the Onset," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(6), pages 1320-1332, December.
    12. Sarang Deo & Seyed Iravani & Tingting Jiang & Karen Smilowitz & Stephen Samuelson, 2013. "Improving Health Outcomes Through Better Capacity Allocation in a Community-Based Chronic Care Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(6), pages 1277-1294, December.
    13. Marta Soares & Luísa Canto e Castro, 2012. "Continuous Time Simulation and Discretized Models for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 30(12), pages 1101-1117, December.
    14. Marta O Soares & L Canto e Castro, 2010. "Simulation or cohort models? Continuous time simulation and discretized Markov models to estimate cost-effectiveness," Working Papers 056cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    15. James Shearer & Colin Green & Carl Counsell & John Zajicek, 2011. "The use of decision-analytic models in Parkinson’s disease," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 243-258, July.
    16. Westerink-Duijzer, L.E. & van Jaarsveld, W.L. & Wallinga, J. & Dekker, R., 2015. "Dose-optimal vaccine allocation over multiple populations," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    17. Marta O. Soares & Luísa Canto e Castro, 2012. "Continuous Time Simulation and Discretized Models for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 30(12), pages 1101-1117, December.
    18. Carrasco, L R & Lee, V J & Chen, M I & Matchar, D B & Thompson, J P & Cook, A R, 2011. "Strategies for antiviral stockpiling for future influenza pandemics: a global epidemic-economic perspective," MPRA Paper 57763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Heß, Michael (Ed.) & Schlieter, Hannes (Ed.), 2014. "Modellierung im Gesundheitswesen: Tagungsband des Workshops im Rahmen der Modellierung 2014," ICB Research Reports 57, University Duisburg-Essen, Institute for Computer Science and Business Information Systems (ICB).
    20. Olivier Ethgen & Baudouin Standaert, 2012. "Population–versus Cohort–Based Modelling Approaches," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 171-181, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:19:y:2010:i:5:p:518-531. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/5749 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.