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The Impact of BSE on U.S. Exports of Beef and Pork

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  • Fawzi A. Taha
  • William F. Hahn

Abstract

ABSTRACT An augmented vector‐autoregressive (VAR) model relating pre‐ and post‐BSE (bovine spongiform encephalopathy) exports of U.S. beef meat, beef offal, pork meat, and pork offal was used to test for structural changes following an outbreak of BSE in the United States in December 2003. The VAR, exogenous variables—intercepts, seasonal dummies, and export unit value first lags—and covariance estimates all had statistically significant changes for each of the four types of exports, indicating that BSE caused structural changes in U.S. exports of the four meats. To demonstrate the effects of these coefficient‐estimate shifts, post‐BSE exports were forecast using both sets of coefficients, the pre‐ and post‐BSE periods. These forecasts were in concordance with actual U.S. export data, showing that the structural changes lead to a decrease in U.S. beef meat and offal exports and a strong increase in U.S. pork meat and offal exports in the post‐BSE years. [Econ Lit Classification: F140, F170, and Q170.].

Suggested Citation

  • Fawzi A. Taha & William F. Hahn, 2014. "The Impact of BSE on U.S. Exports of Beef and Pork," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 5-16, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:30:y:2014:i:1:p:5-16
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/agr.21367
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen‐Ti Chen & John M. Crespi & William Hahn & Lee L. Schulz & Fawzi Taha, 2020. "Long‐run impacts of trade shocks and export competitiveness: Evidence from the U.S. BSE event," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(6), pages 941-958, November.
    2. Soon, Byung Min & Thompson, Wyatt, 2016. "Estimating Import Demand Functions in Major Beef Importing Countries by Bayesian Hierarchical Linear Model," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235735, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Hahn, William F., 2017. "Cattle, Cutouts, and the Drop: How Much Information is in Disaggregated Cattle Prices?," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258027, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Jurkėnaitė, Nelė & Djuric, Ivan, 2018. "Impact of the Russian trade bans on Lithuanian pork sector," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 481-491.
    5. Byung Min Soon & Wyatt Thompson, 2020. "Japanese beef trade impact from BSE using a time‐varying Armington model," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 385-401, June.

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