Sluggish Cyclical Recovery. Economic Outlook for 2010 and 2011
AbstractWhile the cyclical downturn has come to a halt since mid-2009, the recovery is set to remain subdued. Goods exports and manufacturing output benefit from the rebound of world trade and the upswing in Asia as well as from the strengthening activity in trading partner countries in western Europe. However, these impulses have so far failed to trigger a new investment cycle, given the uncertain outlook and the substantial slack in productive capacities. Private consumption is on a steady but slow upward trend. In such an environment, the Austrian economy will grow by 1.3 percent in volume in 2010 and by 1.4 percent in 2011. The pick-up in production will not be strong enough to turn the labour market around; thus, by 2011, unemployment will rise to 7.7 percent of the dependent labour force or 5.4 percent of the total labour force according to Eurostat definitions. The latest budgetary decisions of the federal government suggest that the general government deficit will be taken down from its peak to around 4 percent of GDP. A crucial factor for a sustainable recovery will be whether the rebound in foreign demand will ignite domestic investment in machinery and equipment before dampening effects from synchronised fiscal consolidation across the EU set in.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by WIFO in its journal Quarterly.
Volume (Year): 15 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Other versions of this item:
- Markus Marterbauer, 2010. "Sluggish Cyclical Recovery. Economic Outlook for 2010 and 2011," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 83(4), pages 287-301, April.
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilse Schulz).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.