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Revisionsanalyse der vierteljährlichen Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung seit Einführung der Schnellschätzung im Jahr 2005

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  • Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly
  • Sandra Bilek-Steindl
  • Marcus Scheiblecker

Abstract

Die vierteljährliche Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung unterliegt im Zeitverlauf Revisionen, etwa wegen der Verfügbarkeit neuerer Daten, der Anwendung neuer Berechnungsmethoden, aber auch der Revisionen der zugrundeliegenden Quelldaten. In Phasen wirtschaftlicher Turbulenzen wie der Finanzmarkt- und Wirtschaftskrise 2008/09 sind Revisionen verstärkt zu erwarten. Dies gilt umso mehr für die Erstveröffentlichung der VGR für ein Quartal (Schnellschätzung). Die vorliegende Revisionsanalyse der Schnellschätzungen zeigt für den Zeitraum 2005 bis 2013 keine Systematik im Revisionsverhalten, auch das Ausmaß der Revisionen kann als gering eingestuft werden. Ebenso ist die Richtung der Revisionen nicht prognostizierbar. Damit weist die Erstveröffentlichung trotz Verkürzung der Publikationsfrist (von 70 Tagen nach Ende des Quartals auf 45 Tage) ein hohes Maß an Zuverlässigkeit hinsichtlich zu erwartender Revisionen auf. Die Krisenjahre 2008 und 2009 schlugen sich erwartungsgemäß in den Revisionen sichtbar nieder: In der Krise wurde die Abwärtsbewegung des BIP signifikant unterschätzt. Allerdings wurde der obere Wendepunkt zeitlich richtig datiert und musste auch nach mehreren Revisionsdurchgängen nicht korrigiert werden. Auch die Dauer der Kontraktion und der Zeitpunkt, zu dem die Erholung einsetzte, zeigten sich recht robust gegenüber Neuberechnungen.

Suggested Citation

  • Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Marcus Scheiblecker, 2014. "Revisionsanalyse der vierteljährlichen Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung seit Einführung der Schnellschätzung im Jahr 2005," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 87(10), pages 693-710, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2014:i:10:p:693-710
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Petra Sauer & Marcus Scheiblecker, 2009. "Analyse von Revisionen der vierteljährlichen Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung in Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 82(10), pages 749-766, October.
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