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Major Risks for the World Economy, Slump in Domestic Construction Demand. Economic Outlook for 2001 and 2002

Author

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  • Markus Marterbauer

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Under benign assumptions concerning the international business cycle, the Austrian economy should grow by 1.3 percent in volume this year, and by 1.9 percent in 2002, provided that the U.S. economy recovers and policy in the EU takes action to stem the forces of recession. Along with weaker foreign demand, domestic factors are also dampening growth. In particular the construction sector is in a crisis, affecting building of new structures and civil engineering alike. Unemployment is set to rise significantly, exceeding 6 percent of the dependent labour force, while inflation should decelerate. Due to the effect of automatic budgetary stabilisers, the general government balance in 2002 may be in deficit of around ATS 10 billion (€ 0.74 billion), equivalent to 0.3 percent of GDP. The public sector should thereby contribute towards sustaining economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Marterbauer, 2001. "Major Risks for the World Economy, Slump in Domestic Construction Demand. Economic Outlook for 2001 and 2002," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 74(10), pages 593-594, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2001:i:10:p:593-594
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