Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Production Increases Expected

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ewald Walterskirchen

    (WIFO)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    In January, business expectations continued to improve. According to the business survey conducted by the Austrian Institute of Economic Research, production expectations in manufacturing are markedly more optimistic than in the previous quarter: more firms expect an increase rather than a decrease in production during the next few months. The level of orders and the capacity utilization rate are now seen in a more optimistic light. The rise in orders from abroad helped to stabilize the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing output in the fourth quarter exceeded the level of the fourth quarter of 1993 by 1 percent, with the recovery mainly supported by the basic goods industries. For the first time since the fall of 1992 exports recorded a year-on-year gain (+1½ percent in the fourth quarter). Losses in exports to Western Europe were more than offset by higher sales to the U. S., South East Asia, China, and Eastern Europe. The decline in imports did not level off in the fourth quarter: the year-on-year decrease of 4 percent implies a persistent weakness in domestic demand, especially for capital goods. In 1993, imports dropped by 4.8 percent, at a slightly higher rate than exports. As a result, the current account improved by more than AS 8.5 billion in 1993. The economic recovery in the U. S. accelerated in the fourth quarter with an annual growth rate of 7½ percent. In the European Union business confidence improved, but consumer sentiment, particularly in Germany, remained pessimistic. Activity in the manufacturing sector also rebounded in Germany, but the risk is great that, as a result of tax hikes, the cyclical development will take the form of a W. In Austria, consumer demand took a favorable turn at the end of 1993. Retail sales (seasonally adjusted) were flat towards the end of the year. In the construction sector, civil engineering operated close to capacity; private and public non-residential construction also recorded gains. With the incipient recovery of economic activity, the labor market also showed signs of stabilization. In February, unemployment was only slightly higher, employment barely lower than one year ago. According to the OECD definition, the unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) was 4.6 percent. It is still unclear to what extent this result is due to special seasonal factors, but if this trend were to continue, the rate of unemployment might be lower than the figure projected for 1994. Vacancy statistics, usually a leading indicator, also mirror the stabilization in the labor market. In February 1994, the number of vacancies was just 10 percent below the level in February 1993. Inflation eased at the beginning of the year; the rate of inflation dropped from 3.5 percent to 3.1 percent in January. Price increases of industrial products, food, and private services, particularly in tourism, leveled off. A rise in the gasoline tax and in some public fees at the beginning of 1994, however, stimulated inflation. In contrast to earlier years, public fees increased more sharply than the prices of private services. The question of how much Austria's accession to the EEA has contributed to the dampening of inflation remains to be analyzed in detail. Gains in contractual wages slowed down further. With the new contracts in the public sector and private service sectors becoming effective, the yearly rate of increase dropped from 4.5 percent in December 1993 to 3.6 percent in January 1994.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/69
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Payment required

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by WIFO in its journal WIFO-Monatsberichte.

    Volume (Year): 67 (1994)
    Issue (Month): 3 (March)
    Pages: 135-146

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:1994:i:3:p:135-146

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Arsenal Object 20, A-1030 Wien
    Phone: (+43 1) 798 26 01-0
    Fax: (+43 1) 798 93 86
    Web page: http://www.wifo.ac.at/
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Postal: Austrian Institute of Economic Research Publikationsverkauf und Abonnentenbetreuung Arsenal, Objekt 20 A-1030 Vienna/Austria
    Email:

    Related research

    Keywords: Steigende Produktionserwartungen; Production Increases Expected;

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:1994:i:3:p:135-146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilse Schulz).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.