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Analysis of Revisions in Indian GDP Data

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  • Amey Sapre
  • Rajeswari Sengupta

Abstract

This paper studies constant price growth estimates of India’s annual GDP data in order to understand the revision policy adopted by the Central Statistics Office. The use of high-frequency indicators to prepare initial estimates overstates the growth of the economy, although at the aggregate level the difference between initial estimates and final revisions is low. At the sectoral level the extent of revision for almost all sectors is large and the magnitude and direction of the revision is unpredictable. The Central Statistical Office must address issues in data quality and revisions by (i) adopting a comprehensive revision policy, (ii) supplying information and data on high frequency indicators and (iii) adopting revision metrics to assess the quality of estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Amey Sapre & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2017. "Analysis of Revisions in Indian GDP Data," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 18(4), pages 129-172, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wej:wldecn:689
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Datta, Pratik & Surya Prakash B. S. & Sane, Renuka, 2017. "Understanding Judicial Delay at the Income Tax Appellate Tribunal in India," Working Papers 17/208, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    2. Olivier Roodenburg & Ard H.J. den Reijer, 2006. "Dutch GDP Data Revisions: Are They Predictable and Where Do They Come from?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 52(4), pages 337-356.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Radhika Pandey & Amey Sapre & Pramod Sinha, 2018. "What does the new 2011-12 IIP series tell about the Indian manufacturing sector?," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(2), pages 90-106, October.
    2. Arvind Subramanian, 2019. "India's GDP Mis-estimation: Likelihood, Magnitudes, Mechanisms, and Implications," CID Working Papers 354, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    3. Acharya, Viral & Bhadury, Soumya & Surti, Jay, 2020. "Financial Vulnerability and Risks to Growth in Emerging Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14962, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Hazarika, Bhabesh, 2017. "Decomposition of Gender Income Gap in Rural Informal Micro-enterprises: An Unconditional Quantile Approach in the Handloom Industry," Working Papers 17/216, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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