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American Growth and Napoleonic Wars

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Author Info

  • Hasan Vergil

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Bülent Ecevit University, Turkey)

  • M. Erdem Ozgur

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Dokuz Eylül University, Turkey)

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    Abstract

    Four years after the French Revolution, in 1793 a series of wars among France and other major powers of Europe began and they lasted until 1815. There is disagreement among economic historians about the effects of these wars on the trend of US economic growth. This paper aims to answer the following question. Did America as a neutral nation take advantage of economic possibilities caused by Europe at war through trade? To put it differently, this paper questions whether there was an export-led growth due to the war. To answer this question, we re-examined the export-led growth hypothesis for the period 1790-1860 using the ARDL methodology. Based on this methodology, a cointegrated relationship is found among the variables of real GDP, labor, exports and exchange rates. The results suggest that the economic growth of the US was not export-driven. In addition, parallel to the results of unit root tests with structural breaks, the coefficient of the dummy variable was statistically significant in the long run, implying that the war did have a significant effect on the economic growth trend of the US.

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    File URL: http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/casopis/2013_5/05%20Hasan%20Vergil%20and%20M%20Erdem%20Ozgur.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia in its journal Panoeconomicus.

    Volume (Year): 60 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 5 (September)
    Pages: 649-666

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    Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:60:y:2013:i:5:p:649-666

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    Web page: http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/

    Related research

    Keywords: Napoleonic wars; United States trade growth; ARDL methodology;

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    1. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
    2. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
    3. Kevin O'Rourke, 2005. "The worldwide economic impact of the Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars," Trinity Economics Papers tep9, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    4. Marin, Dalia, 1990. "Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 362, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    6. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    7. Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Herzer, Dierk & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005. "Export-Led Growth in Chile: Assessing the Role of Export Composition in Productivity Growth," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 20, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    8. Jang Jin, 2002. "Exports and growth: is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for provincial economies?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 63-76.
    9. Titus Awokuse, 2005. "Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(14), pages 849-858.
    10. Antoine Brunet, 2009. "A Pertinent Analytic Method to Correctly Measure Contributions to Growth in Gross Domestic Product," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 397-408, September.
    11. Marta C. N. Simões, 2011. "Education Composition and Growth: A Pooled Mean Group Analysis of OECD Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(4), pages 455-471, December.
    12. Goldin, Claudia D. & Lewis, Frank D., 1980. "The role of exports in American economic growth during the napoleonic wars, 1793 to 1807," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 6-25, January.
    13. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1990. "Exports and economic growth: The African case," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 831-835, June.
    14. Taylor, George Rogers, 1964. "American Economic Growth Before 1840: An Exploratory Essay," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(04), pages 427-444, December.
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