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Nonlinearity and Fractional Integration in the US Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate

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  • Burcu Kıran

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    (Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, Turkey)

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    Abstract

    This paper examines the nonlinear behavior and the fractional integration property of the US dollar/euro exchange rate over the period fromJanuary 1999 to August 2010 by extending the procedure of Peter M. Robinson (1994) to the case of nonlinearity. First, using the approach developed by Mehmet Caner and Bruce E. Hansen (2001), we investigate the possible presence of nonlinearity in the series through the estimation of a two-regime threshold autoregressive model. After finding nonlinearity, we also allow for disturbances to be fractionally integrated based on the different versions of Robinson (1994) tests. The findings show that the US dollar/euro exchange rate follows a stationary process with a weak evidence for long memory.

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    File URL: http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/casopis/2012_3/05%20Burcu%20Kiran.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia in its journal Panoeconomicus.

    Volume (Year): 59 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 3 (June)
    Pages: 325-334

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    Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:59:y:2012:i:3:p:325-334

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    Related research

    Keywords: Nonlinear behavior; Long memory; Exchange rate;

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    1. L. A. Gil-Alana & P. M. Robinson, 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 95-114.
    2. Derek Bond & Michael J Harrison & Edward J O’Brien, 2007. "Modelling Ireland’s Exchange Rates - From EMS to EMU," Working Papers 200718, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.
    3. Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000. "Long Memory and Regime Switching," NBER Technical Working Papers 0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "Non-Linearities And Fractional Integration In The Us Unemployment Rate," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 04-17, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    5. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    6. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2000. "Mean reversion in the real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 285-288, December.
    7. Baillie, Richard T. & Kilic, Rehim, 2006. "Do asymmetric and nonlinear adjustments explain the forward premium anomaly?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 22-47, February.
    8. Hamilton, James D, 2001. "A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 537-73, May.
    9. Bruce E. Hansen & Mehmet Caner, 1997. "Threshold Autoregressions with a Unit Root," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 381, Boston College Department of Economics.
    10. L. A. Gil-Alaña & Peter M. Robinson, 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 298, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
    12. Richard T. Baillie & George Kapetanios, 2005. "Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity in Long Memory Models," Working Papers 528, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    13. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2009. "Exploring Long Memory and Nonlinearity in Irish Real Exchange Rates using Tests based on Semiparametric Estimation," Working Papers 200901, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.
    14. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1997. "Long Memory and Forecasting in Euroyen Deposit Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 361, Boston College Department of Economics.
    15. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2002. "Structural breaks and fractional integration in the US output and unemployment rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 79-84, September.
    16. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 1999. "Testing fractional integration with monthly data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 613-629, December.
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