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An Empirical Study of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in China

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  • Xiaowen Jin

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    (Munich Graduate School of Economics, Ludwig Maximilians University Munich, Germany)

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    Abstract

    This paper seeks to estimate exchange rate pass-through in China and investigate its relationship with monetary policy. Linear and VAR models are applied to analyze robustness. The linear model shows that, over the long run, a 1% appreciation of NEER causes a decline in the CPI inflation rate of 0.132% and PPI inflation rate of 0.495%. The VAR model supports the results of the linear model, suggesting a fairly low CPI pass-through and relatively higher PPI pass-through. Furthermore, this paper finds that, with the fixed exchange rate regime, CPI pass-through remains higher. The exchange rate regimes influence on CPI pass through, combined with the fact that appreciation diminishes inflation, suggests that the Chinese government could pursue a more flexible exchange rate policy. In addition, reasons for low exchange rate pass-through for CPI are analyzed. The analysis considers price control, basket and weight of Chinese price indices, distribution cost, and imported and non-tradable share of inputs.

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    File URL: http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/casopis/2012_2/01%20Xiaowen%20Jin.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia in its journal Panoeconomicus.

    Volume (Year): 59 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 (May)
    Pages: 135-156

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    Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:59:y:2012:i:2:p:135-156

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    Web page: http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/

    Related research

    Keywords: Pass-through; Exchange rate; Consumer price; Producer price; Monetary policy;

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    References

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    1. Jeannine Bailliu & Eiji Fujii, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 04-21, Bank of Canada.
    2. Ge Wu, 2009. "Broad Money Demand and Asset Substitution in China," IMF Working Papers 09/131, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," NBER Working Papers 12163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2009. "Navigating the trilemma: Capital flows and monetary policy in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 205-224, May.
    5. Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 0243, European Central Bank.
    6. Jane E. Ihrig & Mario Marazzi & Alexander D. Rothenberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 851, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Chang Shu & Xiaojing Su, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 33-46.
    8. Barhoumi, Karim, 2006. "Differences in long run exchange rate pass-through into import prices in developing countries: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 926-951, December.
    9. Hamid Faruqee, 2006. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(1), pages 4.
    10. Oxelheim, Lars & Forssbæck , Jens, 2007. "The Transition to Marked-Based Monetary Policy: What Can China Learn from the European Experience?," Working Paper Series 696, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    11. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Hahn, Elke & Sánchez, Marcelo, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging markets," Working Paper Series 0739, European Central Bank.
    12. Devereux, Michael B. & Yetman, James, 2010. "Price adjustment and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 181-200, February.
    13. Beirne, John & Bijsterbosch, Martin, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Central and Eastern European Member States," Working Paper Series 1120, European Central Bank.
    14. Qin, Duo & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xinhua & Liu, Shiguo, 2005. "Modeling monetary transmission and policy in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 157-175, March.
    15. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through in EMU acceding countries: Empirical analysis and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1375-1391, May.
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