Demographic and economic factors of labour supply: Long-term projections and policy options for France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom
AbstractThe paper presents labour supply scenarios in France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom for the years 2025 and 2050. These projections were based on the examination of the dynamics of the major contributing factors to the labour supply (LS), i.e. working-age population (WAP), labour force participation rate (LFPR), employment rate (ER) and labour utilisation (LU; defined as time worked per worker per year). The assumptions underlying the scenarios varied from plausible to `best case scenario' to unrealistic. In France and in the United Kingdom, the demographic factors coupled with continuing immigration at the current levels will shape only a marginal decrease of the size of WAP. By contrast, the size of Germany's and Italy's WAP will shrink significantly by 2025 and, barring a tremendous surge in immigration, greatly by mid-century. In order to sustain the supply of labour, Italy has to eliminate unemployment. This assumes the sustainability of such factors as the recent increase in LFPR (especially of women) and relatively large immigration. By contrast, Germany has a large potential for increasing labour utilisation. Unless, however, immigration is increased dramatically, this will not suffice to balance the impact of the WAP decrease on LS. Within varying degrees, governments are able to affect the components of labour supply and capitalise on eventual synergies. The analysis relies on data from the United Nations Population Division, OECD, ILO and the European Union.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna in its journal Vienna Yearbook of Population Research.
Volume (Year): 7 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Giuseppe Carone, 2005.
"Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing,"
Labor and Demography
- Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-term labour force projections for the 25 EU Member States: A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," European Economy - Economic Papers 235, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Orsetta Causa, 2008. "Explaining Differences in Hours Worked among OECD Countries: An empirical analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 596, OECD Publishing.
- Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 2002.
"Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Micro Estimation,"
NBER Working Papers
9407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 2004. "Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Micro-Estimation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub04-1, July.
- Hervé Boulhol, 2009. "The Effects of Population Structure on Employment and Productivity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 684, OECD Publishing.
- Kalwij, Adriaan & Vermeulen, Frederic, 2005.
"Labour Force Participation of the Elderly in Europe: The Importance of Being Healthy,"
IZA Discussion Papers
1887, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Kalwij, A.S. & Vermeulen, F.M.P., 2005. "Labour Force Participation of the Elderly in Europe: The Importance of Being Healthy," Discussion Paper 2005-130, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Tomás Sobotka, 2004. "Is Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(2), pages 195-220.
- Daniela Del Boca, 2002. "Low Fertility and Labour Force Participation of Italian Women: Evidence and Interpretations," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 61, OECD Publishing.
- Giuseppe Carone & Declan Costello & Nuria Diez Guardia & Gilles Mourre & Bartosz Przywara & Aino Salomaki, 2005. "The economic impact of ageing populations in the EU25 Member States," European Economy - Economic Papers 236, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Frank Kolesnik).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.