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China's uncertain demographic present and future

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  • Wolfgang Lutz
  • Sergei Scherbov
  • Gui Ying Cao
  • Qiang Ren
  • Xiaoying Zheng
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    Abstract

    This paper applies methods of probabilistic population forecasting to assess the range of uncertainty of China’s future population trends. Unlike previous applications of probabilistic population projections that consider stochastic future fertility, mortality and migration, this paper will also account for the significant uncertainty of China’s current fertility level (with published figures ranging from 1.2 to 2.3) and the related uncertainties about the sex ratio at birth (with estimates from 1.06 to above 1.2) and the size of the youngest cohorts in the 2000 census. The model applied in this paper will be based on assumed uncertainty ranges for current conditions, in addition to the probabilistic treatment of future trends. Given the sheer size of China’s population, these significant uncertainties about current conditions are of high importance not only for the future population of China but also for considerations on a global scale.

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    File URL: http://epub.oeaw.ac.at/0xc1aa500d_0x0017f0d7
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna in its journal Vienna Yearbook of Population Research.

    Volume (Year): 5 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 37-59

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    Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:5:y:2007:i:1:p:37-59

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    Web page: http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/

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    1. Guangyu Zhang & Zhongwei Zhao, 2006. "Reexamining China's Fertility Puzzle: Data Collection and Quality over the Last Two Decades," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(2), pages 293-321.
    2. Lee, Ronald D., 1993. "Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 187-202, August.
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