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Demographic composition and projections of car use in Austria

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  • Alexia Prskawetz
  • Jiang Leiwen
  • Brian C. O Neill

Abstract

Understanding the factors driving demand for transportation in industrialised countries is important in addressing a range of environmental issues. Previous work has identified demographic factors as important influences on demand, in addition to economic factors. While some studies applied a detailed demographic composition to analyse past developments of transportation demand, or estimated parameters based on models that include demographic variables, projections for the future have never accounted for future compositional changes in the population. In this paper, we combine cross-sectional analysis of car use in Austria with detailed household projections to explore the sensitivity of projections of car use to the specific type of demographic disaggregation employed. We find that particular demographic characteristics of households can have important effects on aggregate demand through the combined effect of differences in demand across different types of households, and changes in the future composition of the population by household type. For example, the highest projected car use--an increase of about 20 per cent between 1996 and 2046--is obtained if we apply the value of car use per household to the projected numbers of households. However, if we apply a composition that differentiates households by size, age and sex of the household head, car use is projected to increase by less than 3 per cent during the same time period. These findings suggest that the inclusion of demographic factors in transportation demand modelling should extend beyond their use in historical decompositions and as controls in model parameter estimation to explicit consideration of future demographic changes.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna in its journal Vienna Yearbook of Population Research.

Volume (Year): 2 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 175-202

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Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:2:y:2004:i:1:p:175-202

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Web page: http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/

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  1. Olof Johansson-Stenman, 2002. "Estimating individual driving distance by car and public transport use in Sweden," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(8), pages 959-967.
  2. Dahl, Carol & Sterner, Thomas, 1991. "Analysing gasoline demand elasticities: a survey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 203-210, July.
  3. Alexia Prskawetz & Andres Vikat & Dimiter Philipov & Henriette Engelhardt, 2002. "Pathways to stepfamily formation in Europe: results from the FFS," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-046, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  4. Kayser, Hilke A., 2000. "Gasoline demand and car choice: estimating gasoline demand using household information," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 331-348, June.
  5. Riccardo Borgoni & Ulf-Christian Ewert & Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, 2002. "How important are household demographic characteristics to explain private car use patterns? A multilevel approach to Austrian data," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  6. Greening, Lorna A & Jeng, Hann Tarn, 1994. "Lifecycle analysis of gasoline expenditure patterns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 217-228, July.
  7. Carlsson-Kanyama, Annika & Linden, Anna-Lisa, 1999. "Travel patterns and environmental effects now and in the future:: implications of differences in energy consumption among socio-economic groups," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 405-417, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Riccardo Borgoni & Ulf-Christian Ewert & Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, 2002. "How important are household demographic characteristics to explain private car use patterns? A multilevel approach to Austrian data," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  2. Leiwen Jiang & Karen Hardee, 2011. "How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 287-312, April.
  3. Brantley Liddle, 2003. "Demographic dynamics and per capita environmental impact: using panel regressions and household decompositions to examine population and transport," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-029, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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