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Empleo, desempleo y elecciones, el caso de la elección presidencial Argentina de 1995

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  • Osvaldo Meloni

Abstract

El presente trabajo analiza el impacto de las condiciones macroeconómicas provinciales sobre los resultados de la elección presidencial argentina de 1995. Las variables que se revelaron importantes para explicar los resultados electorales fueron los cambios en la tasa de desempleo, la tasa de empleo, los votos obtenidos por el candidato oficialista en la elección presidencial anterior, las transferencias discrecionales entregadas por el gobierno federal a las provincias y la estructura partidaria oficialista en cada provincia. La evidencia empírica muestra que los votantes argentinos gozan de “buena memoria”, ya que los cambios en la tasa de desempleo se computan teniendo en cuenta todo el período presidencial. Este resultado coincide con el obtenido por Panzer y Paredes para el de Chile y difiere de los reportados en distintos estudios con datos de elecciones de los Estados Unidos.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Chile, Department of Economics in its journal Estudios de Economia.

Volume (Year): 24 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 Year 1997 (June)
Pages: 119-133

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Handle: RePEc:udc:esteco:v:24:y:1997:i:1:p:119-133

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Web page: http://www.econ.uchile.cl/
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Keywords: Empleo; desempleo; elecciones.;

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Cited by:
  1. Leonardo Martinez, 2008. "A theory of political cycles," Working Paper 05-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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