A central statement of the theory of natural trading partners is that preferential trading with regional trading partners is less likely to be trade diverting and therefore geographically proximate partners are to be considered "natural" partners for preferential arrangements. This paper examines this question empirically. The analytical framework involves a general equilibrium model of preferential trade and an econometric model with tight links to this theory. This framework is used to implement tests of the natural trading partners hypothesis using U.S. trade data for the years 196495: Welfare changes that would result from preferential tariff reductions by the United States against various trading partners are first estimated, and correlations with bilateral "distance" measures (with and without controls for income levels) are then examined. Since the argument for "natural" trading partners is based on the greater likelihood of geographically proximate countries to be more significant trading partners, correlations between the welfare change estimates and bilateral trade volume are examined as well. Both geographic proximity and trade volume are found to have no effect. Thus this paper is unable to find any support for the natural trading partners theory in U.S. data.
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Volume (Year): 111 (2003) Issue (Month): 1 (February) Pages: 174-201 Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
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Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1994.
"Protection for Sale,"
American Economic Review,
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Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1992.
"Protection For Sale,"
NBER Working Papers
4149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Di Tella, Rafael & Dubra, Juan, 2008.
"Anger and Regulation,"
MPRA Paper
14442, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Mar 2009.
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Rafael Di Tella & Juan Dubra, 2009.
"Anger and Regulation,"
NBER Working Papers
15201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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