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Discounting, Values, and Decisions

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  • John K.-H. Quah
  • Bruno Strulovici

Abstract

How do discount rates affect agents' decisions and valuations? This paper provides a general method to analyze this question, allowing stochastic and managed cash flows, stochastic discount rates, and time inconsistency and including arbitrary learning and payoff or utility processes. We show that some of these features can lead to counterintuitive answers (e.g., "a more patient agent stops earlier"), but we also establish, under simple conditions, theorems yielding robust predictions concerning the impact of discount rates on control and stopping decisions and on valuations. We apply our theory to models of search, experimentation, bankruptcy, optimal growth, investment, and social learning.

Suggested Citation

  • John K.-H. Quah & Bruno Strulovici, 2013. "Discounting, Values, and Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(5), pages 896-939.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/673867
    DOI: 10.1086/673867
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
    5. Bruno Strulovici, 2010. "Learning While Voting: Determinants of Collective Experimentation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(3), pages 933-971, May.
    6. Torsten Persson & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1989. "Why a Stubborn Conservative would Run a Deficit: Policy with Time-Inconsistent Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 325-345.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chiaki Hara, 2019. "Heterogeneous Impatience of Individual Consumers and Decreasing Impatience of the Representative Consumer," KIER Working Papers 1009, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Bruno Strulovici & Martin Szydlowski, 2012. "On the Smoothness of Value Functions," Discussion Papers 1542, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    3. Mikhail V. Sokolov, 2023. "NPV, IRR, PI, PP, and DPP: a unified view," Papers 2302.02875, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    4. Alexandrer Groves, 2013. "Identifying What is Tempting," 2013 Papers pgr489, Job Market Papers.
    5. Kaufmann, Marc, 2022. "Projection bias in effort choices," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 368-393.
    6. Escudé, Matteo & Sinander, Ludvig, 2023. "Slow persuasion," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 18(1), January.
      • Matteo Escud'e & Ludvig Sinander, 2019. "Slow persuasion," Papers 1903.09055, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
    7. Sandroni, Alvaro & Urgun, Can, 2017. "Dynamics in Art of War," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 51-58.
    8. Martin Dumav, 2021. "Moral Hazard, Dynamic Incentives, and Ambiguous Perceptions," Papers 2110.15229, arXiv.org.
    9. Ke, T. Tony & Villas-Boas, J. Miguel, 2019. "Optimal learning before choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 383-437.
    10. Strulovici, Bruno & Szydlowski, Martin, 2015. "On the smoothness of value functions and the existence of optimal strategies in diffusion models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 159(PB), pages 1016-1055.
    11. Th'eo Durandard & Matteo Camboni, 2024. "Under Pressure: Comparative Statics for Optimal Stopping Problems in Nonstationary Environments," Papers 2402.06999, arXiv.org.
    12. Sadler, Evan, 2021. "Dead ends," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    13. Schosser, Josef, 2016. "Time (in)consistency and real options: Much ado about nothing?," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 77-84.
    14. Choi, Kyoung Jin & Kwak, Minsuk & Shim, Gyoocheol, 2017. "Time preference and real investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 18-33.
    15. Doruk Cetemen & Felix Zhiyu Feng & Can Urgun, 2019. "Contracting with Non-Exponential Discounting: Moral Hazard and Dynamic Inconsistency," Working Papers 2019-17, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    16. Ebert, Sebastian & Wei, Wei & Zhou, Xun Yu, 2020. "Weighted discounting—On group diversity, time-inconsistency, and consequences for investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    17. Gorno, Leandro & Iachan, Felipe S., 2020. "Competitive real options under private information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    18. Ron Siegel & Bruno Strulovici, 2015. "On the Design of Criminal Trials: The Benefits of a Three-Verdict System," Discussion Papers 1581, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.

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