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Crime, Deterrence, and Right-to-Carry Concealed Handguns

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Author Info
Lott, John R, Jr
Mustard, David B

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Abstract

Using cross-sectional time-series data for U.S. counties from 1977 to 1992, We find that allowing citizens to carry concealed weapons deters violent crimes, without increasing accidental deaths. If those states without right-to-carry concealed gun provisions had adopted them in 1992, county- and state-level data indicate that approximately 1,500 murders would have been avoided yearly. Similarly, we predict that rapes would have declined by over 4,000, robbery by over 11,000, and aggravated assaults by over 60,000. We also find criminals substituting into property crimes involving stealth, where the probability of contact between the criminal and the victim is minimal. Further, higher arrest and conviction rates consistently reduce crime. The estimated annual gain from all remaining states adopting these laws was at least $5.74 billion in 1992. The annual social benefit from an additional concealed handgun permit is as high as $5,000. Copyright 1997 by the University of Chicago.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Legal Studies.

Volume (Year): 26 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-68
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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlstud:v:26:y:1997:i:1:p:1-68

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  3. Rafael Di Tella & Sebastian Galiani & Ernesto Schargrodsky, 2006. "Crime Distribution & Victim Behavior During a Crime Wave," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp849, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  4. Steven Raphael & RUDOLF WINTER-EBMER, 1998. "Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 1998-19, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Matthew Baker & Niklas J. Westelius, 2009. "Crime, Expectations and The Deterrence Hypothesis," Hunter College Department of Economics Working Papers 425, Hunter College: Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2005. "Shared Legacies, Disparate Outcomes: Why American South Border Cities Turned the Tables on Crime and Their Mexican Sisters Did Not," Law and Economics 0511002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  11. Rafael Di Tella & Sebastian Galiani & Ernesto Schargrodsky, 2006. "Crime Distribution and Victim Behavior during a Crime Wave," Working Papers 0044, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata. [Downloadable!]
  12. Roberto Coronado & Pia M. Orrenius, 2003. "The impact of illegal immigration and enforcement on border crime rates," Working Papers 03-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  13. Leo Kahane, 1999. "Gun lobbies and gun control: Senate voting patterns on the Brady Bill and the assault weapons ban," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(4), pages 384-393, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Hashem Dezhbakhsh & Joanna M. Shepherd, 2003. "The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: Evidence from a "Judicial Experiment"," Emory Economics 0314, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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  15. Moore, Mark & Cook, Phil & Braga, Anthony, 2001. "Gun Control," Working Paper Series rwp01-033, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
  16. Kendall, Todd & Tamura, Robert, 2008. "Unmarried fertility, crime, and cocial stigma," MPRA Paper 8031, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  17. Carlisle Moody & Thomas B. Marvell, 2009. "The Debate on Shall Issue Laws Continued," Econ Journal Watch, Atlas Economic Research Foundation, vol. 6(2), pages 203-217, May. [Downloadable!]
  18. Jessica Wolpaw Reyes, 2007. "Environmental Policy as Social Policy? The Impact of Childhood Lead Exposure on Crime," NBER Working Papers 13097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Mark Duggan, 2000. "More Guns, More Crime," NBER Working Papers 7967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Hashem Dezhbakhsh & Paul Rubin, 2007. "From the “Econometrics of Capital Punishment” to the “Capital Punishment” of Econometrics: On the Use and Abuse of Sensitivity Analysis," Emory Economics 0715, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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  22. Mark Duggan & Randi Hjalmarsson & Brian A. Jacob, 2008. "The Effect of Gun Shows on Gun-Related Deaths: Evidence from California and Texas," NBER Working Papers 14371, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Jeffrey DeSimone, 1999. "The Effect of Cocaine Prices on Crime," Working Papers 9907, East Carolina University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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