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Traditional versus New-Keynesian Phillips Curves: Evidence from Output Effects

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Author Info
Bernhard Herz ()
Werner Roeger

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Abstract

The issue of the backward-looking versus the forward-looking Phillips curve is still an open question in the macroeconomics profession. We identify a crucial difference between the two hypotheses concerning the real output effects of monetary policy shocks. The backward-looking Phillips curve predicts a strict intertemporal trade-off in the case of monetary shocks: a positive short run response of output is followed by a period where output is below the baseline. The resulting cumulative output effect is exactly zero. In contrast, the forward-looking model implies that the cumulative output effect of temporary monetary shocks is positive. The empirical evidence on the cumulated output effects of money are consistent with the forward-looking model.

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Article provided by Department of Economics, Economics I, Bayreuth University in its journal Macroeconomics.

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Handle: RePEc:uba:hadfwe:trad_2004-10

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Related research
Keywords: Phillips curve; monetary neutrality; monetary policy;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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  2. Brayton, Flint & Levin, Andrew & Lyon, Ralph & Williams, John C., 1997. "The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 43-81, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Bankim Chadha & Paul R. Masson & Guy Meredith, 1991. "Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," IMF Working Papers 91/97, International Monetary Fund.
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  12. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Robert King & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Testing Long Run Neutrality," NBER Working Papers 4156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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