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Modeling the Term Structure of Exchange Rate Expectations

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Author Info
Christian Bauer ()
Sebastian Horlemann ()

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Abstract

Recent approaches in international finance on exchange rates explicitly account for the maturity of interest rates. We integrate the interest parity idea into a modern microstructure model of foreign exchange and national bond markets and develop a model of the term structure of exchange rate expectations. The reaction function of the spot rate on changes of the basic economic variables such as the interest rate is generalized. This capital market model is able to reproduce standard results (e.g. overshooting) without reference to macroeconomic variables like rigid prices. In addition, the semi-elasticity of the spot exchange rate on interest rate changes depends on both the term structure of interest rates in both countries and determinants of the financial markets. The effects of interest rate changes on the spot exchange rate are diminished, if the exchange rate expectations for short and for long horizons have opposite signs. Finally, we show that there are several rational methods of building expectations which are not mutually consistent. This ambiguity of rational expectation building might contribute to explanations of the diversity of empirical results in the literature known as UIP puzzle.

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Article provided by Department of Economics, Economics I, Bayreuth University in its journal Macroeconomics.

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Handle: RePEc:uba:hadfwe:termstructure-bauer-horlemann-2006-09

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Related research
Keywords: exchange rates; expectation; term structure; interest parity;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

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  1. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Rana Chatterjee, 2004. "Application Of The Kalman Filter For Estimating Continuous Time Term Structure Models: Evidence From The Uk And Germany," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 346, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Brown, Stephen J & Dybvig, Philip H, 1986. " The Empirical Implications of the Cox, Ingersoll, Ross Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 617-30, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Chaboud, Alain P. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2005. "Uncovered interest parity: it works, but not for long," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 349-362, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 9834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Nelson Mark & Yangru Wu, 1998. "Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise," Working Papers 98-05, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Liquidity and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 339-352, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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