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Demographic influences on long-term economic growth in Australia

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  • Australian Treasury

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

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    Abstract

    Australia's strong economic performance in recent years has reflected several key influences in the supply side of the economy — including strong growth in the labour force, declining structural unemployment, and rapid growth in productivity. Demographic projections point to Australia's population growth slowing over the next 50 years and, in turn, the population ageing. Under these circumstances, it is likely that the growth in the labour force will decline, perhaps significantly, although the outcome will be influenced by future trends in labour force participation, particularly amongst older workers. These emerging trends in the labour force suggest that, for any given rate of productivity growth, Australia's trend GDP growth could be lower over future decades than during the 1990s, with some of these influences becoming apparent towards the later part of the coming decade. On the other hand, growth in GDP per capita — which is a more appropriate indicator of the growth in living standards — is not expected to decline to the same extent, if at all.

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    File URL: http://archive.treasury.gov.au/documents/119/PDF/3demo.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Treasury, Australian Government in its journal Economic Roundup.

    Volume (Year): (2000)
    Issue (Month): 4 (December)
    Pages: 27-48

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    Handle: RePEc:tsy:journl:journl_tsy_er_2000_4_1

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    Related research

    Keywords: demographic trends; economic growth; labour supply;

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Phillip King & Harriet Jackson, . "Public Finance Implications of Population Ageing," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada, Department of Finance Canada 2000-08, Department of Finance Canada.
    2. David Gruen & Adrian Pagan & Christopher Thompson, 1999. "The Phillips Curve in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia rdp1999-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Peter Forsyth, 2000. "Microeconomic Policies and Structural Change," RBA Annual Conference Volume, Reserve Bank of Australia, in: David Gruen & Sona Shrestha (ed.), The Australian Economy in the 1990s Reserve Bank of Australia.
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