Demographic influences on long-term economic growth in Australia
AbstractAustralia's strong economic performance in recent years has reflected several key influences in the supply side of the economy — including strong growth in the labour force, declining structural unemployment, and rapid growth in productivity. Demographic projections point to Australia's population growth slowing over the next 50 years and, in turn, the population ageing. Under these circumstances, it is likely that the growth in the labour force will decline, perhaps significantly, although the outcome will be influenced by future trends in labour force participation, particularly amongst older workers. These emerging trends in the labour force suggest that, for any given rate of productivity growth, Australia's trend GDP growth could be lower over future decades than during the 1990s, with some of these influences becoming apparent towards the later part of the coming decade. On the other hand, growth in GDP per capita — which is a more appropriate indicator of the growth in living standards — is not expected to decline to the same extent, if at all.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Treasury, Australian Government in its journal Economic Roundup.
Volume (Year): (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
demographic trends; economic growth; labour supply;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia
rdp1999-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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