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Forecasting The Path of U.S. CO_2 Emissions Using State-Level Information

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  • Maximilian Auffhammer

    (University of California, Berkeley and NBER)

  • Ralf Steinhauser

    (Australian National University)

Abstract

We compare the most common reduced-form models used for emissions forecasting, point out shortcomings, and suggest improvements. Using a U.S. state-level panel data set of CO_2 emissions, we test the performance of existing models against a large universe of potential reduced-form models. We find that leading models in the literature, as well as models selected based on an emissions per capita loss measure or different in-sample selection criteria, perform significantly worse compared to the best model chosen based directly on the out-of-sample loss measure defined over aggregate emissions. © 2011 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 94 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 172-185

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:94:y:2012:i:1:p:172-185

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  1. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Thomas M. Selden, 1992. "Stoking the Fires? Co2 Emissions and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Christoph Jeßberger, 2011. "Multilateral Environmental Agreements up to 2050: Are They Sustainable Enough?," Ifo Working Paper Series, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich Ifo Working Paper No. 98, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

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