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Identifying the Sources of Instabilities in Macroeconomic Fluctuations

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  • Atsushi Inoue

    (North Carolina State University)

  • Barbara Rossi

    (Duke University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the sources of the substantial decrease in output growth volatility in the mid-1980s by identifying which of the structural parameters in a representative New Keynesian and structural VAR models changed. Overturning conventional wisdom, we show that the Great Moderation was due not only to changes in shock volatilities but also to changes in monetary policy parameters, as well as in the private sector's parameters. The Great Moderation was previously attributed to good luck because the alternative sources of instabilities appear to have offsetting effects on output volatility and therefore were impossible to detect using existing techniques. © 2011 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 93 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 1186-1204

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:93:y:2011:i:4:p:1186-1204

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Cited by:
  1. Ana Beatriz Galvao & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Regimes and the Great Moderation," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/22, European University Institute.
  2. L. Baele & G. Bekaert & S. Cho & K. Inghelbrecht & A. Moreno, 2013. "Macroeconomic Regimes," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/870, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  3. Yuelin Liu & James Morley, 2013. "Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy," Discussion Papers 2013-15, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  4. Jerger, Jürgen & Röhe, Oke, 2011. "Testing for Parameter Stability in DSGE Models. The Cases of France, Germany and Spain," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 453, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  5. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  6. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2012. "Estimation and Solution of Models with Expectations and Structural Changes," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  7. M Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick & Mikhail Pranovich, 2011. "Optimal Forecasts in the Presence of Structural Breaks," DNB Working Papers 327, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  8. Harun Mirza & Lidia Storjohann, 2011. "Making a Weak Instrument Set Stronger: Factor-Based Estimation of the Taylor Rule," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse13_2012, University of Bonn, Germany.

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