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Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Impulse Responses

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  • �scar Jordà

    (Department of Economics, University of California, Davis)

Abstract

Inference about an impulse response is a multiple testing problem with serially correlated coefficient estimates. This paper provides a method to construct simultaneous confidence regions for impulse responses and conditional bands to examine significance levels of individual impulse response coefficients given propagation trajectories. The paper also shows how to constrain a subset of impulse response paths to anchor structural identification and how to formally test the validity of such identifying constraints. Simulation and empirical evidence illustrate the new techniques. A broad summary of asymptotic analytic formulas is provided to make the methods easy to implement with commonly available statistical software. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 91 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 629-647

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:91:y:2009:i:3:p:629-647

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Cited by:
  1. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Imran Shah, 2013. "Making the most of High Inflation," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/01, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  2. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses," Departmental Working Papers 1401, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
  3. Òscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/34, European University Institute.
  4. Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2011. "An efficient minimum distance estimator for DSGE models," Bank of England working papers 439, Bank of England.
  5. Ryan R. Brady & Derek Stimel & Steven Sumner, 2012. "A Time Series Test of the Direct Wealth Effect," Departmental Working Papers 40, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
  6. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Lee, Chingnun & Wang, Tzu-Wei, 2011. "A re-examination on dissecting the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 572-586, April.
  7. Ryan Brady, 2013. "The Spatial Diffusion of Regional Housing Prices across U.S. States," Departmental Working Papers 45, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
  8. Anna Staszewska-Bystrova, 2013. "Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 233(5-6), pages 680-690, October.
  9. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Inference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 1-13.

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