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What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles form the Study of Seasonal Cycles?

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  • Miron, Jeffrey A
  • Beaulieu, J Joseph

Abstract

This paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business-cycle fluctuations. The fundamental reason is that, in many instances, identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about nonseasonal fluctuations. The authors show that seasonal fluctuations provide good examples of preference shifts and synergistic equilibria. They also find evidence against production smoothing and in favor of unmeasured variation in labor and capital utilization. In some industries, capacity constraints appear to bind. Copyright 1996 by MIT Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 78 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 54-66

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:78:y:1996:i:1:p:54-66

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  1. Beaulieu, J Joseph & MacKie-Mason, Jeffrey K & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1992. "Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles also Have Large Business Cycles?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 621-56, May.
  2. Miron, J.A., 1988. "A Cross-Country Comparaison Of Seasonal Cycles And Business Cycles," Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory 89-07, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  3. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1990. "The Seasonal Cycle in U.S. Manufacturing," Papers, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme 0012, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
  4. Jeffrey A. Miron & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1989. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Model of Inventories," NBER Working Papers 2360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Alan S. Blinder, 1984. "Can The Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Behavior be Saved?," NBER Working Papers 1257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John, 1996. "Evidence on Macroeconomic Complementarities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 78-93, February.
  7. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil Kashyap & David Wilcox, 1995. "Why Firms Smooth Seasonals in a Boom," Working Papers, Ohio State University, Department of Economics 001, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  8. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger, 1990. "Macroeconomic Implications of Production Bunching: Factor Demand Linkages," Papers, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme 0001, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
  9. Krane, Spencer & Wascher, William, 1999. "The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in U.S. employment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 523-553, December.
  10. John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper, 1992. "The Aggregate Implications Of Machine Replacement: Theory And Evidence," Working Papers, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau 92-12, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  11. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1989. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Production Level and Production Cost Smoothing Models of Inventory Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 853-64, September.
  12. Ghysels, E., 1986. "A Study Towards a Dynamic Theory of Seasonality for Economic Time Series," Cahiers de recherche, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques 8612, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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Cited by:
  1. Norman Swanson & Richard Urbach, 2013. "Prediction and Simulation Using Simple Models Characterized by Nonstationarity and Seasonality," Departmental Working Papers, Rutgers University, Department of Economics 201323, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  2. B. Candelon & A. Dupuy & L. Gil-Alana, 2009. "The nature of occupational unemployment rates in the United States: hysteresis or structural?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(19), pages 2483-2493.
  3. Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Ajuste Estacional e Integración en Variables Macroeconómicas," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 39(116), pages 135-155.
  4. Wen, Yi, 2007. "By force of demand: Explaining international comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, January.
  5. RUSSO, Giuseppe & VEREDAS, David, 2000. "Institutional rigidities and employment rigidity in the Italian large industrial firms," CORE Discussion Papers, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) 2000048, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  6. Ahdi Ajmi & Adnen Ben Nasr & Mohamed Boutahar, 2008. "Seasonal Nonlinear Long Memory Model for the US Inflation Rates," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 243-254, April.
  7. Wen Yi, 2004. "What Does It Take to Explain Procyclical Productivity?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-40, June.
  8. van Dijk, Dick & Strikholm, Birgit & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2001. "The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Stockholm School of Economics 0429, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 16 May 2002.
  9. Ravi Jagannathan & Yong Wang, 2005. "Consumption Risk and the Cost of Equity Capital," NBER Working Papers 11026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Yi Wen, 2005. "By force of demand: explaining international comovements and the saving-investment correlation puzzle," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2005-043, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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