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Sources of Monetary Growth Uncertainty and Economic Activity: The Time-Varying-Parameter Model with Heteroskedastic Disturbances

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  • Kim, Chang-Jin

Abstract

A large body of research suggests that uncertainty is an important factor affecting economic activity. Most earlier research, however, fails to consider the possibility that uncertainty may affect the value of new information and economic activity differently, depending upon its source. The author first examines the importance of these different sources for modeling U.S. monetary growth uncertainty. He then empirically relates different sources of monetary growth uncertainty to economic activity measured by real GNP. The results suggest that different sources of uncertainty have different impacts on economic activity. The results tend to confirm predictions arising in the literature on irreversible investment and uncertainty. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 75 (1993)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 483-92

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:75:y:1993:i:3:p:483-92

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Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/

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Cited by:
  1. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations," International Finance Discussion Papers 681, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Funda Telatar & Erdinc Telatar, 2003. "The relationship between inflation and different sources of inflation uncertainty in Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 431-435.
  3. Felipe Morandé L. & Mauricio Tejada G., 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Conduct in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(3), pages 45-80, December.
  4. Kuang-Liang Chang & Chi-Wei He, 2010. "Does The Magnitude Of The Effect Of Inflation Uncertainty On Output Growth Depend On The Level Of Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 126-148, 03.
  5. Long, Ling & Tsui, Albert K. & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2014. "Conditional heteroscedasticity with leverage effect in stock returns: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 89-102.
  6. Telatar, Erdinc & Telatar, Funda & Ratti, Ronald A., 2003. "On the predictive power of the term structure of interest rates for future inflation changes in the presence of political instability: the Turkish economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 931-946, December.
  7. Felipe Morandé & Mauricio Tejada, 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty for Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 492, Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Amber Fatima & Abdul Waheed, 2014. "Economic uncertainty and growth performance: a macroeconomic modeling analysis for Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1361-1387, May.
  9. Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Markov Regime-Switching," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0040, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  10. Felipe Morandé & Mauricio Tejada, 2009. "Sources of Uncertainty in Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 12, pages 451-509 Central Bank of Chile.
  11. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2001. "Inflation Forecasting in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 4(3), pages 59-85, December.
  13. Michael Dueker, 1995. "Compound volatility processes in EMS exchange rates," Working Papers 1994-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  14. Michael Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1995. "Identifying Austria's implicit monetary target: an alternative test of the "hard currency" policy," Working Papers 1995-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  15. Silvia Sgherri & Tamim Bayoumi, 2004. "Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Supply Side of the Economy," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 422, Econometric Society.
  16. Tamim Bayoumi & Silvia Sgherri, 2004. "Monetary Magic? How the Fed Improved the Flexibility of the U.S. Economy," IMF Working Papers 04/24, International Monetary Fund.

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