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In Search of a "Strictly Rational" Forecast

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  • Bonham, Carl S
  • Dacy, Douglas C

Abstract

This paper proposes criteria for classifying time-series forecasts of inflation as weakly, sufficiently, strongly, and strictly rational. Forecasts taken from the ASA-NBER surveys, some well-known one-step-ahead forecasting techniques, and a novel variable length autoregressive moving average model are tested against these criteria. None of the forecasts series meets the criteria for strict rationality nor, even, the less demanding criteria for strong rationality. While agents forecast as best they can, their forecasts are not likely to meet stringent rationality criteria suggested by econometricians. Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonham, Carl S & Dacy, Douglas C, 1991. "In Search of a "Strictly Rational" Forecast," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 245-253, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:73:y:1991:i:2:p:245-53
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    Cited by:

    1. Markiewicz, Agnieszka & Pick, Andreas, 2014. "Adaptive learning and survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 685-707.
    2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Are Macroeconomic Forecasts Informative? Cointegration Evidence from the ASA-NBER Surveys," NBER Working Papers 6926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2017. "Exchange rate pass through, cost channel to monetary policy transmission, adaptive learning, and the price puzzle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 69-82.
    4. Schaefer, Matthew P. & Myers, Robert J., 1999. "Forecasting Accuracy, Rational Expectations And Market Efficiency In The Us Beef Cattle Industry," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21487, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Dean Croushore, 2012. "Forecast bias in two dimensions," Working Papers 12-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    6. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Weale, Martin, 2006. "Survey Expectations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 715-776, Elsevier.
    7. Lopez-Calix, Jose R., 1998. "Are Pick data on parallel exchange rates misleading?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 223-230, May.

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