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Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in A Young Democracy Setting

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Author Info
Akhmed Akhmedov
Ekaterina Zhuravskaya

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Abstract

This paper tests the theory of opportunistic cycles in a decade-old democracy- Russia-finds strong evidence of cycles, and provides an explanation for why previous literature often found weaker evidence. Using regional monthly panel data, we find that (1) the budget cycle is sizable and short-lived; public spending shifts toward direct monetary transfers to voters; (2) the magnitude of the cycle decreases with democracy, government transparency, media freedom, voter awareness, and over time; and (3) preelectoral manipulation increases incumbents' chances for reelection. The short length of the cycle explains underestimation of its size by previous literature because of low frequency data used in previous studies. © 2004 MIT Press

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 119 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 1301-1338
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:119:y:2004:i:4:p:1301-1338

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  1. Perotti, E. C., 1998. "Inertial credit and opportunistic arrears in transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(9), pages 1703-1725, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. H Lehmann & J Wadsworth & A Aquisti, 1998. "Grime and Punishment: Job Insecurity and Wage Arrears in the Russian Federation," CEP Discussion Papers 0403, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Eric Maskin & Chenggang Xu, 2001. "Soft budget constraint theories: From centralization to the market," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Park, Sangkyun & Peristiani, Stavros, 1998. "Market Discipline by Thrift Depositors," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 347-64, August.
  6. Bonin, John P. & Huang, Yiping, 2001. "Dealing with the bad loans of the Chinese banks," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 197-214. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Schaffer, Mark E., 1998. "Do Firms in Transition Economies Have Soft Budget Constraints? A Reconsideration of Concepts and Evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 80-103, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Berglof, Erik & Roland, Gerard, 1997. "Soft budget constraints and credit crunches in financial transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 807-817, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. John P. Bonin & Yiping Huang, 2001. "Dealing with the Bad Loans of the Chinese Banks," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 357, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  10. Martin Petri & Aleh Tsyvinski & Günther Taube, 2002. "Energy Sector Quasi-Fiscal Activities in the Countries of the Former Soviet Union," IMF Working Papers 02/60, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Lehmann, Hartmut & Wadsworth, Jonathan & Acquisti, Alessandro, 1999. "Grime and Punishment: Insecurity and Wage Arrears in the Russian Federation," IZA Discussion Papers 65, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  12. Kornai, Janos, 2001. "Hardening the budget constraint: The experience of the post-socialist countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1573-1599, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. J Bonin & M Schaffer, 1995. "Banks, Firms, Bad Debts and Bankruptcy in Hungary 1991-4," CEP Discussion Papers 0234, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  15. Berger, Allen N, 1995. "The Relationship between Capital and Earnings in Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 432-56, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1992. "An Evaluation of the Treasury Plan for Banking Reform," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 133-53, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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