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The Fiscal Myth of the Price Level

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Author Info
Dirk Niepelt

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Abstract

I examine the "fiscal theory of the price level" according to which "non-Ricardian" policy and predetermined nominal government debt fiscally determine prices. I argue that the non-Ricardian policy assumption and, by implication, fiscal price level determination are inconsistent with an equilibrium in which all asset holdings reflect optimal household choices. In such an equilibrium, policy must be Ricardian even if, in some states of nature, the government defaults or commits to an arbitrary real primary surplus sequence. I propose an alternative to the fiscal theory of the price level, based on nominal flows instead of nominal stocks. While this alternative framework establishes a consistent link between fiscal policy and the price level, it does not introduce inflationary fiscal effects beyond those suggested by Sargent and Wallace. © 2004 the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 119 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 276-299
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:119:y:2004:i:1:p:276-299

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  1. Willem Buiter, 2004. "A Small Corner of Intertemporal Public Finance - New Developments in Monetary Economics: 2 Ghosts, 2 Eccentricities, A Fallacy, A Mirage and A Mythos," NBER Working Papers 10524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2006. "Monetary and fiscal theories of the price level: the irreconcilable differences," Working Papers 2006-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  3. jerome henry & sandro momigliano & pablo hernandez de cos, 2005. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices Evidence from macroeconometric models," Macroeconomics 0501020, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Alessandro Piergallini, 2006. "Fiscal Deficits, Taylor Rules, and Price Dynamics," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(4), pages 395-403, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jean-Pascal Bénassy, 2007. "Interest rate rules and global determinacy: An alternative to the Taylor principle," PSE Working Papers 2007-35, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  6. Schabert, Andreas & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2006. "Debt, Deficits and Destabilizing Monetary Policy in Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5590, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Willem Buiter, 2007. "Is Numérairology the Future of Monetary Economics?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 127-156, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Alfredo Baldini & Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2008. "Fiscal and Monetary Anchors for Price Stability: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 08/121, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. W.H. Buiter, 2007. "Is Numérairology the Future of Monetary Economics?Unbundling numéraire and medium of exchange through a virtual currency and a shadow exchange rate," CEP Discussion Papers dp0776, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Taiji Harashima, 2004. "The Ultimate Source of Inflation: A Microfoundation of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Macroeconomics 0409018, EconWPA, revised 23 Sep 2004. [Downloadable!]
  11. Philipp Paulus, 2004. "The fiscal stability impact of monetary unions - looking beneath the Stability Pact debate," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 05/2004, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland. [Downloadable!]
  12. Andreas Schabert & Leopold von Thadden, 2006. "Distortionary taxation, debt, and the price level," Working Paper Series 577, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Jerome Creel & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2005. "Discretionary Policy Interactions and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: A SVAR Analysis on French Data," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  14. Harashima, Taiji, 2008. "A Microfounded Mechanism of Observed Substantial Inflation Persistence," MPRA Paper 10668, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  15. Andreas Schabert, 2006. "Central Bank Instruments, Fiscal Policy Regimes, and the Requirements for Equilibrium Determinacy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-025/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Óscar J. Arce, 2005. "Reflections on fiscalist divergent price-paths," Banco de España Working Papers 0533, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  17. Harashima, Taiji, 2007. "The Optimal Quantity of Money Consistent with Positive Nominal Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 1839, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Feb 2007. [Downloadable!]
  18. Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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